Germany's stunning goal against Sweden was a blow to Mexico as there is now a scenario that could knock them out of the World Cup

Chances to advance: 72%

Scenarios to advance:

• Mexico will advance with a win or draw against Sweden
• If Sweden beats Mexico, Mexico can still advance if ...
  • South Korea beats or draws with Germany, or
  • Germany beats South Korea, and Mexico beats either Germany or Sweden on tiebreakers (goal differential, goals scored, discipline). Mexico currently holds a 2-goal advantage on goal differential

One thing to know: Mexico may not have the best odds in the group, but the team is still a heavy favorite to move forward, and are the only team in the that can win the group without help from elsewhere in the table. Should Mexico win or tie on Wednesday, the team will win the group and be one step closer to breaking a curse that has haunted El Tri in the knockout round for more than 30 years.

Chances to advance: 40%

Scenarios to advance:

• Sweden advances with a win over Mexico if ...
  
  • South Korea beats or draws with German, or
  • They beat Mexico by two goals or more
• If Sweden draws with Mexico, they can advance if ...
  
  • South Korea beats Germany, or
  • Germany draws with South Korea, and Sweden wins the tie-breaker over Germany (goals scored, discipline). They are currently tied on goal differential and goals scored.
• If Sweden loses to Mexico, they can still advance if South Korea beats Germany and Sweden is ahead of South Korea and Germany on tiebreakers.

One thing to know: Sweden's scenarios are the most complicated of the bunch, but it's likely too much for the squad to think about on the pitch. The best thing the team can do is beat Mexico and then just hope for the best.

Chances to advance: 1%

Scenarios to advance:

• South Korea advances if they beat Germany, Mexico defeats Sweden, and South Korea finishes ahead of both Germany and Sweden on tiebreakers (goal differential, goals scored, discipline). They currently trail both by two goals on goal differential.

One thing to know: Already with a negative goal differential, South Korea faces a mighty uphill climb to excape the group stage. This is about as close to being eliminated as a team can be heading into its final match, but South Korea certainly still has something to play for.

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