BANK OF AMERICA: Here are 5 'out of consensus' and not-priced-in market calls
US-China pause
Rate cuts in Mexico
Though most central banks are looking for steady inflation before resuming rate adjustments, Mexico's monetary policy authority is poised to slash its overnight rate in 2020, the bank said.
Markets are pricing in a cut to 6.25% from 7.75% by the end of 2020, though consensus estimates call for a softer adjustment to 6.5%.
Bank of America's analysts expect a cut to 7%, noting that inflation above the country's 3% target will stave off the larger cuts projected by other economists.
European Union's negative rates
Negative interest rates remain one of the most talked-about market phenomena in the new year, and the economists expect "the debate about the counterproductive effects" of such policy to amplify in 2020.
The European Central Bank is poised to continue its policy of quantitative easing and hint at lower rates lasting longer, the bank wrote. The lack of a shift away from the controversial rates will likely upset investors seeking greater market certainty.
"Communication will be acrobatic and could upset markets, which are not pricing much risk of higher front-end rates," the economists said.
Slow inflation in the UK
Brexit continues to cut into the UK's economic growth prospects, and while many traders see the new Conservative majority as bringing new certainty to the effort, the bank's economists tout a different theory.
Bank of America expects gross domestic product growth to stand at roughly 1% in both 2020 and 2021 as Brexit woes last through further trade negotiations and regulatory hurdles.
"As a result, we think inflation could fall to 1.3% by mid-2020. Stirling appreciation could extend the weakness in inflation," the team wrote.
Korea harmed by the trade war
Even though the country posted strong fourth-quarter GDP growth, economic expansion will slow to 1.8% in 2020, Bank of America projected. The estimate falls below the Bank of Korea's 2.3% estimate and the consensus of 2.2%.
"Lack of resolution in the trade war and slower growth in the US and China should, in our view, significantly limit the recovery in exports and investment next year," the economists wrote.
Now read more markets coverage from Markets Insider and Business Insider:
Discover plunges the most in a decade after warning investors of rising expenses
Popular Right Now
Advertisement