BANK OF AMERICA: Here are 3 reasons US consumers are likely to spend less going forward, derailing one of the economy's few bright spots

Consumer sentiment can serve as a forward-looking indicator of spending shifts, and recent months have brought unusually volatile movements in sentiment as the stock market swung lower in the winter and summer.

Recession warnings often drive stock sell-offs, and in turn, sell-offs can lead investors to fear that the economy is contracting. A stronger correlation between market moves and sentiment could lend itself to exacerbated swings when either shows worse-than-expected figures.

"Sentiment tumbled on a month-over-month basis in both August and December along with the sell-off in the stock market. This shows a more worried consumer," they wrote.

Unemployed consumers historically spend less, and although the unemployment rate remains low, the labor market has added fewer and fewer jobs in recent months.

"In prior episodes of slowing job growth, there tended to be a similar slowdown in consumer spending," the analysts said.

The six-month moving average for jobs slipped to 154,000 from 234,000 in January, and future reports are projected to maintain the slowing trend. The next release will likely reflect an even more negative figure as the GM strike troubled the month. Continued slowdown, coupled with lagging wage growth, could leave consumers with a less rosy view of the economy, and shift behavior from spending to saving.

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