2. Smart everything
Winners: IoT, connectivity, smart cities, 'big brother tech'
Losers: privacy, offline
BAML's take: "500bn connectable devices by 2030 to combat deflationary demographics but at the risk of the death of privacy."
Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch
3. Moral capitalism
Winners: ESG, impact investing, stakeholders
Losers: Business-as-usual investing, solely profit-maximizing firms
BAML's take: "US$20tn of AuM is going into ESG strategies over the next 20 years = nearly market cap of S&P500."
Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch
4. Splinternet
Winners: Emerging markets/the East
Losers: Developed markets/the West
BAML's take: "China to overtake the US and become the world leader in AI by 2030. 'Sovereign internets' expand."
Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch
5. Robots & automation
Winners: Automation, local production, big data & AI
Losers: Humans, global supply chains
BAML's take: "Up to 50% of jobs at risk of automation by 2035."
Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch
6. Climate change
Winners: Clean energy, electric vehicles
Losers: Fossil fuels, diesel cars, single-use plastics
BAML's take: "Investors are more focused than ever on global warming's impact on the economy, society, unemployment and migration."
Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch
7. Demographics
Winners: eCommerce, new consumer
Losers: Bricks & mortar, legacy consumer
BAML's take: "The number of grandparents will outnumber the world's children; every second 5 people enter the EM middle class and Gen Z overtakes Millennials."
Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch
8. Quantitative failure
Winners: Keynesianism, gold
Losers: Financial assets, Monetarism
BAML's take: "Monetary policy measures are proving less and less effective at boosting corporate and household "animal spirits."
Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch
9. Recession
Winners: Inflation, real assets, infrastructure
Losers: Growth, credit, deflation
BAML's take: "Record numbers of FMS investors think the global economy is late-cycle, the bond market bubble is set to unwind and populism is likely to be inflationary."
Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch
10. Peak globalization
Winners: Local markets, real assets
Losers: Global markets
BAML's take: "The end of unrestricted free movement of labor, goods, and capital around the world."
Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch