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BANK OF AMERICA: 10 main themes will define the next decade. Here are the winners and losers for each.

1. Space

BANK OF AMERICA: 10 main themes will define the next decade. Here are the winners and losers for each.

2. Smart everything

2. Smart everything

Winners: IoT, connectivity, smart cities, 'big brother tech'

Losers: privacy, offline

BAML's take: "500bn connectable devices by 2030 to combat deflationary demographics but at the risk of the death of privacy."

Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch

3. Moral capitalism

3. Moral capitalism

Winners: ESG, impact investing, stakeholders

Losers: Business-as-usual investing, solely profit-maximizing firms

BAML's take: "US$20tn of AuM is going into ESG strategies over the next 20 years = nearly market cap of S&P500."

Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch

4. Splinternet

4. Splinternet

Winners: Emerging markets/the East

Losers: Developed markets/the West

BAML's take: "China to overtake the US and become the world leader in AI by 2030. 'Sovereign internets' expand."

Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch

5. Robots & automation

5. Robots & automation

Winners: Automation, local production, big data & AI

Losers: Humans, global supply chains

BAML's take: "Up to 50% of jobs at risk of automation by 2035."

Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch

6. Climate change

6. Climate change

Winners: Clean energy, electric vehicles

Losers: Fossil fuels, diesel cars, single-use plastics

BAML's take: "Investors are more focused than ever on global warming's impact on the economy, society, unemployment and migration."

Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch

7. Demographics

7. Demographics

Winners: eCommerce, new consumer

Losers: Bricks & mortar, legacy consumer

BAML's take: "The number of grandparents will outnumber the world's children; every second 5 people enter the EM middle class and Gen Z overtakes Millennials."

Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch

8. Quantitative failure

8. Quantitative failure

Winners: Keynesianism, gold

Losers: Financial assets, Monetarism

BAML's take: "Monetary policy measures are proving less and less effective at boosting corporate and household "animal spirits."

Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch

9. Recession

9. Recession

Winners: Inflation, real assets, infrastructure

Losers: Growth, credit, deflation

BAML's take: "Record numbers of FMS investors think the global economy is late-cycle, the bond market bubble is set to unwind and populism is likely to be inflationary."

Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch

10. Peak globalization

10. Peak globalization

Winners: Local markets, real assets

Losers: Global markets

BAML's take: "The end of unrestricted free movement of labor, goods, and capital around the world."

Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch


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