A top Wall Street strategist just toured China as trade tensions grip the nation. Here were his biggest takeaways.
The firm's trip started out in Beijing, China's capital city. Traffic was heavy on a Saturday afternoon from the airport to their hotel. The most prominent brands Stoltzfus and his team observed were "Honda, Hyundai, Toyota, Nissan, Mercedes Benz, BMW, Audi, Porsche, Jaguar, Bentley, Chevrolet, Cadillac," and Ford.
The strategists visited a nearby shopping mall full of high-end brand names, and observed medium foot traffic. Some of the stores appeared over-staffed, and they were later told by a local that "much of the actual shopping in China for these types of brands takes place online." Another Beijing local said the trade war had begun taking a toll "on at least some consumer sentiment the longer it dragged on."
Tables in an open-concept food court were packed with diners, the team observed, and later saw a similar heavy volume of families and travelers at the restaurant in their hotel.
The team of strategists then met with investment strategists in Beijing, and heard concerns about the trade war and implications for the US and Chinese economies. Of note was concern about the impact on China's technology sector. The takeaway seemed to be that the market participants with whom they met were pessimistic about the prospect of a resolution in the near-term.
Next, they went to Taipei, the capital of Taiwan. The investors with whom the strategists met expressed similar concerns to their Mainland China counterparts — but appeared slightly more optimistic on a resolution between Beijing and Washington "before too much longer."
Hong Kong was the last stop on the firm's trip, which happened to coincide with the massive demonstrations there last week in protest of a policy of extradition. The investors were "candid about their concerns with mixed views as to the outcome they expected," Stoltzfus wrote.
Now, all eyes are on Osaka.
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