Science- At least 30 states in the US have eased their lockdown restrictions or plan to reopen soon, even as nine states report an increase in positive tests.
- US infections appear to have reached a plateau, but that data is skewed by a drop in cases in the tristate area, which accounts for 40% of the nation's total.
- Excluding the tristate area, US infections appear to be on the rise.
- That means easing lockdown restrictions now, before testing and contract tracing is widely available, could result in another dangerous wave of infections.
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Across the country, states are rolling back lockdown measures. At least 30 states have eased their restrictions or plan to reopen soon, according to The New York Times.
California, the first US state to order all residents to stay home, will allow some retail businesses to open for curbside pick-up starting Friday, provided that employees wear masks and practice social distancing. Florida, New Jersey, and Washington state have reopened state parks. Vermont is allowing manufacturing and construction companies to resume operations with no more than 10 employees, and Alaska is allowing restaurants to accept reservations at 25% capacity.
But progress in curbing the outbreak is uneven across the country. As the number of daily
The number of new daily infections in the US overall appears to have plateaued, but that figure is skewed by results from the tristate region, where 40% of the nation's coronavirus cases are located. New York state alone represents more than 25% of the total cases nationwide.
When New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut are excluded from the national case count, the number of daily cases still seems to be rising.
White House guidance suggests that states should see a two-week decline in cases before they begin reopening. Eighteen states currently don't meet that threshold. Nine states, all of which have plans to reopen or have done so already, have seen an increase in their share of positive tests.
That means easing lockdown restrictions could open the door to more infections in other parts of the country.
States needs more tests and contact tracing
Over and over, the evidence shows that lockdowns work: In Italy, a team of researchers recently simulated what could have happened if the country's restrictions had been relaxed in March — or not imposed at all. The results showed that the country's lockdown prevented around 200,000 hospitalizations between February 21 (when Italy's first case was reported) and March 25. It also reduced transmission of the virus in Italy by around 45%, according to the study.
Millions of Italians returned to work on Monday, following a dramatic decline in new daily cases that resulted in a steep drop-off of the nation's curve.
In order to reach this point, the US would have to ramp up testing and contract tracing, Dr. Elizabeth Halloran, a biostatistician at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and the University of Washington, previously told Business Insider.
Harvard's Global Health Institute recently estimated that the US would need to perform 900,000 coronavirus tests per day in order to reopen, NPR reported. Once states see around 10% or fewer positives among their test results, they will have reached sufficient testing capacity, according to the institute. Only nine states currently meet that criteria. At least 18 states with plans to reopen do not.
The US also lacks a widespread contract-tracing program, though public-health officials have submitted a $46.5 billion plan for such a program to Congress. (It includes a request for 180,000 contract tracers.) Massachusetts also launched its own contact tracing program on April 3.
"If we want to open things up now, we'd need to be able to slow things down by finding the people who are actually infected and getting them out of circulation as quickly as possible," Halloran said in April. "What we've done is reduce our transmission, and every model shows that if we open things up now, we will just have a rebound."
The US also needs more personal protective equipment (PPE) for every frontline worker to prevent another spike in cases, she added.
Doctors and nurses in some parts of the country still report shortages of gloves, gowns, and masks. Sophia Thomas, the president of the American Association of Nurse Practitioners, told President Trump on Wednesday that there are "pockets" around the country "where PPE is not ideal." She added that she had been using her own N95 mask "for a few weeks now."
Until states are in a position to adequately test citizens, trace infections, and offer protection for healthcare workers, the decision to ease lockdowns is likely premature — and could lead to deaths that might otherwise have been prevented.
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