The US doesn't have nearly enough hospital beds to handle a potential surge of coronavirus cases, analysis says
- There is no state in the United States where hospital infrastructure could handle a big surge of patients from the outbreak of COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, according to a USA Today analysis.
- In a worst-case scenario, COVID-19 cases may outpace hospital beds at a 17-to-one ratio, the analysis says.
- "Unless we are able to implement dramatic isolation measures like some places in China, we'll be presented with overwhelming numbers of coronavirus patients - two to 10 times as we see at peak influenza times," Dr. James Lawler told USA Today.
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The novel coronavirus pandemic has swept the world and caught many of its governments unawares. Italy, which has the highest number of cases outside China, just implemented wartime triage measures, where doctors must make "impossible" decisions of choosing who to care for.
On Thursday night, Ohio health officials said that the state thinks 100,000 people could be infected. President Donald Trump is expected to declare a state of emergency Friday. Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York recently deployed the National Guard to the outbreak zone of New Rochelle to stem further infections.
One of the major risks is that hospitals may be overwhelmed. According to a USA Today analysis published Friday, United States' hospital infrastructure cannot bear the expected number of cases of COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus, if the disease continues to spread quickly.
In a worst-case scenario, according to the analysis, if every American who seeks care does so at the same time, sickened individuals would outpace hospital beds at a ratio of 17-to-one. And no state will have enough room if cases surge in a way that mirrors other countries.
"Unless we are able to implement dramatic isolation measures like some places in China, we'll be presented with overwhelming numbers of coronavirus patients - two to 10 times as we see at peak influenza times," Dr. James Lawler, an emerging-diseases researcher at the University of Nebraska Medical Center and the Global Center for Health Security, told USA Today.
"No hospital has current capacity to absorb that," Lawler added.
The US hospital system may be strained in other ways. There's a limited supply of ventilators, which are a key instrument for treating respiratory illnesses like COVID-19, Business Insider's Lydia Ramsey reported. And Lawler has projected that it's possible the US could experience 96 million cases and 480,000 deaths.
Dr. Lee Norman, secretary of the Kansas Department of Health and Environment, told USA Today that triaging patients - similar to what Italy is doing - is not off the table if health infrastructure is severely overburdened.
"It could lead to examining the probability of salvaging this patient and that patient," Norman said. "It's a little like in a battlefield. If somebody's not going to make it, you make them comfortable as best you can."
- Read more:
- Coronavirus live updates: More than 136,000 people have been infected and over 5,000 have died. The US has reported 41 deaths. Here's everything we know.
- The US is severely under-testing for coronavirus as death toll and new cases rise
- Taiwan has only 50 coronavirus cases. Its response to the crisis shows that swift action and widespread healthcare can prevent an outbreak.
- The first COVID-19 case originated on November 17, according to Chinese officials searching for 'Patient Zero'