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- As the COVID-19 pandemic spreads, its worldwide fatality rate has risen in step, showing the novel coronavirus may be deadlier than originally anticipated outside of China.
- The fatality rate doubled over the past two months - up from 2.1% as of January 20 to to 4.4% as of March 23, according to data from the World Health Organization.
- But that number, which a top White House official called a "tyranny of averages," does not tell the whole story.
- The rate varies drastically from country to country and by age group, and is constantly evolving as more cases are confirmed and testing efforts ramp up.
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The novel coronavirus pandemic is not fading from view anytime soon.
So far, COVID-19 - the illness caused by the virus - has killed more than 16,300 people and affected at least 374,000 worldwide, putting the global case fatality rate of the disease at approximately 4.4% as of March 23, according to fresh data from the World Health Organization.
That's more than double the overall 2.1% fatality rate reported by WHO as of January 20. On its face, the increase suggests that the virus, and dire healthcare conditions a surge of patients has led to, could be more deadly than people originally suspected.
However, the global death rate doesn't necessarily tell the full story.
In a press conference Monday, Dr. Deborah Birx, who serves as coordinator of the White House coronavirus task force, called the figure a "tyranny of averages," noting that it varies significantly depending on country, age group, and whether a patient had preexisting conditions.
In Italy, which outside of China has been hit the hardest by the virus, the death rate was 9.5% as of March 23, according to Johns Hopkins - likely due in part to the country's aging population. Meanwhile, in South Korea, where the number of new cases reported has declined since February 29, the rate was around 1.2%.
The death rate in the US is also roughly 1.2%, though that could change as it ramps up testing efforts, which have lagged far behind those of other countries due to a litany of errors and delays (yet has ramped up dramatically in regions like New York).
Older age groups are also disproportionately at risk from the disease: 80% of US coronavirus deaths have been among people 65 and older, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, a finding that tracks with early reports from China and South Korea.
The global rate also fails to account for preexisting health conditions, such as diabetes and heart disease, that may increase risk of death from the coronavirus.
Still, a rising global fatality rate paints a troubling picture as the virus continues to spread. Here's how the figure has evolved over time and how it varies across different parts of the world's population.
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