Hello, and welcome to Power Line, a weekly clean-energy newsletter from Business Insider - now sent to you from the lonely isolation of an NYC apartment.
Here's what you need to know:
- Sign up here to get Power Line in your inbox every Friday.
- If you work in the energy industry and are impacted by the novel coronavirus, please reach out to bjones@businessinsider.com.
- Most of our coverage is available exclusively to BI Prime subscribers. If you're looking for a discount on a subscription to BI Prime, click here.
Last week was a week. This week was a week. And next week? It will definitely be a week! Be sure to sign up for our healthcare newsletter Dispensed to follow all of our latest coronavirus coverage.
5 ways the novel coronavirus is impacting the clean-energy industry
Hint: Most of them are not great. Then again, no industry is immune to the impacts of a global pandemic.
1. It's cratering demand for solar energy, mostly in China.
- The government of China delayed its mega-auction for solar developers by a month, and it could push deadlines for large-scale solar builds into 2021.
- Meanwhile, analysts say demand for rooftop solar will fall in the US, due to "recession effects."
- As a result, the data firm BloombergNEF slashed its global 2020 forecast for solar installations.
- Another perspective: The global pandemic might drive end-of-world prep, which could include buying residential solar panels and batteries.
2. It's driving down demand for electric cars, and the battery market will suffer as a result.
- "Global auto sales have been falling for the last two years, and this year we expect the single largest drop since the 2008 financial crisis," a new BNEF report said.
- EVs won't be spared, though they could fare better than combustion cars, BNEF says.
- The EV market constriction will trickle down to battery sales. In what BNEF calls a "pessimistic" scenario, demand for batteries in China - where much of the world's EVs are made - will be 9 GW lower than the firm's initial 2020 projections.
3. It temporarily stunted manufacturing of solar panels and wind turbines.
- In early-to-mid February, solar panel factories in China were operating at 30% to 35% production capacity, an analyst at the research firm Wood Mackenzie told me.
- That will cause delays in shipments to countries outside the US, the analyst said.
- Companies in the US will be sheltered from these effects because they source most of their panels from other countries - namely, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Thailand.
- BNEF says it will still be a record year for wind power installations, though the firm slightly lowered its 2020 forecast.
- "The size of the drop will depend on how quickly Chinese suppliers ramp-up to full production as staff slowly return from isolation," BNEF said.
4. It spurred a price war that caused the price of oil to slide ... and then slide some more.
- When the virus first started to spread, it drove down demand for fuel, causing the price of oil to slip. Then it triggered a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia that pushed it off a cliff.
- Yesterday, the price of oil was down a stunning 27% for the week, CNN reported.
- This could be bad news for startups developing low-emission fuels, which are now even less cost-competitive, an analyst at Raymond James told me.
- It could also impact EV sales. But most analysts say today's price of gasoline isn't a leading factor in consumers' purchasing strategies.
5. It could shift investment away from dirty energy.
- The oil price shock "illustrates that fossil fuel investments are financially riskier and more speculative," a financial analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis said.
- This could shift investment over to clean energy, where stocks have been more stable.
Some good news: 'The clean-energy transition is moving forward'
Anxiety? I've got it. And now that I'm working from home, there's no one to judge me for stress-eating an entire container of chocolate covered almonds.
But I did take some comfort in hearing responses to this question: Will the coronavirus pandemic undermine the energy transition?
- "This is a very dynamic situation and things will change, but the overall message is that the clean energy transition is moving forward - even with these little speed bumps," said Atul Arya, the chief energy strategist at the research firm IHS Markit.
- "Will renewable growth stall because gas and oil are now more economically competitive? I would go back and look at very long-term trends, and the long-term trends favor renewables. The renewable transition is already underway," Hipple said.
- "The clean-energy sector, similar to most all other industries, will not be immune to these impacts. But interestingly, this could fuel certain clean-tech developments, from autonomous electric vehicles to [renewable energy and] storage (for resiliency efforts)," Ron Pernick, the founder of the clean-energy stock indexing site Clean Edge, said.
The top stories I almost missed while reading about coronavirus
- Batteries: The US installed a record amount of energy storage systems, such as batteries, last year. "The home battery sector delivered the most striking growth," Greentech Media reports.
- Batteries: The French energy giant Total is spending $17 million to build the world's largest battery, Bloomberg reports. The company acquired Saft, a battery manufacturer, in 2016.
- Solar: Vivint Solar maintains its position as the second-largest residential solar company in the country. Last year, it installed 233 megawatts, which represents a 19% increase from 2018, the company said in its earnings call this week.
- Utilities: "Duke Energy, Dominion Energy, and Southern Company are not making investments consistent with their clean energy goals," Utility Dive reports.
- Policy: The 555-page American Energy Innovation Act - a sweeping clean-energy legislative package - has stalled in the Senate, The Hill reports. Enveloping nearly 50 bills, the act would funnel billions of dollars towards clean energy.
That's it. Have a great weekend, and stay safe.
- Benji