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People who fled cities months ago don't know if or when it will be safe to return. Here's what experts recommend.

Jun 10, 2020, 23:35 IST
Business Insider
A woman crosses the street in Times Square amid the COVID-19 pandemic on April 30, 2020 in New York City. Some residents who left for smaller towns are considering returning.Johannes Eisele/AFP/Getty Images
  • Months ago, people fled cities for vacation towns and suburbs in an effort to escape the novel coronavirus.
  • Now those who have a choice are questioning if, when, and how it's safe to return.
  • While there's no one right decision for everyone, it's important to consider your own risk factors, how you may affect the community you're returning to, and how you'll get there.
  • Experts say we're still in a pandemic. "As long as you're in a safe place," one said, "why go?"
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Before Molly Mitchell bolted from her Brooklyn apartment for her house in rural Pennsylvania on March 12 in an attempt to escape the novel coronavirus, she was a city girl who spent her lunches schmoozing clients and nights Uber-ing to new restaurants and concerts with friends.

Now, she's been away so long she's become a bee-keeping home chef who does yoga and wears a straw hat.

"I never expected to be away from my city, my friends, and my apartment for this long," Mitchell, who works in advertising, told Insider.

But last week, she had a gut feeling that it was time to return, even though her workplace, restaurants, and concert venues remain closed, and her risk of contracting COVID-19, the disease the coronavirus causes, could go up.

The protests taking over city streets and parks, condemning police brutality and the killing of George Floyd, aren't keeping her away. In fact, they're drawing her back.

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"Originally, the act of 'fleeing' Brooklyn was a matter of doing my best to not get sick," Mitchell said. "Things are different now. There is something I can do to help, and I feel it's my responsibility to be a part of what I know is right."

Demonstrators protest against the death in Minneapolis police custody of George Floyd, in Washington, DC, June 6, 2020. While some people may be avoiding cities because the protests pose new coronavirus transmission risks, others are drawn back to them.REUTERS/Lucas Jackson

As new coronavirus cases dwindle and states begin to reopen, people who left cities for smaller towns and suburbs to escape the virus are weighing the pros and cons of returning, or doing so at all.

Some people have decided never to return and others don't have a choice — maybe they can't easily return because the apartment they fled is no longer available; they must return because they must report, physically, to their job; or they must flee yet again because their current setting is abusive.

But for those who do have the option, experts say there are a few key points to consider in order to make a choice that's right for you.

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Consider your own risks

While New York City has been dubbed the epicenter of the virus in the US, the caseload there has been largely on the decline since late April. Meanwhile, cities in Texas and Ohio are experiencing surges.

That's why it's important to look at the current rates of infection — and which way they're trending — in the city you may return to in order to manage your own coronavirus risk, Sue Ann Bell, a nursing professor at the University of Michigan, where she studies the health effects of disasters, told Insider.

Consider how much interaction you'll have with others in the city versus where you are now, too, she said, since the more people you're around; the longer you're around them; and the closer you are to them, the greater your chance of getting infected.

Moving from a spacious house in an isolated town, for example, to a densely-populated city where you're sharing elevators with apartment residents is a serious step up in risk.

Dig into how people are behaving in your prospective city, too. Do people seem to be mostly respectful of physical distancing and mask-wearing recommendations, or are they mingling mask-less at the park or pub?

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"Restrictions are starting to ease up in many places, but that is not necessarily a reason to rush back," Bell said. "In fact, it can be the wrong reason, especially if you are at a higher risk for infection."

A police officer directs cars into a coronavirus testing facility at Georgia Tech Monday, April 6, 2020, in Atlanta. Until you can get a test, you won't know if you're potentially transporting the virus back to the city you fled.Associated Press/John Bazemore

Know the risks you may be bringing to your community

Rebecca Harrington, a New York City-based Business Insider editor, decided to leave for her family's Wisconsin farm when the office announced a mandatory work-from-home policy March 11. "The thought of spending weeks on end alone in my Manhattan apartment became unbearable," she wrote.

Now, almost three months later, she's not budging — not because she fears contracting the virus if she returns, but because she worries she could bring the virus, which is now increasing in prevalence near her in the Midwest, with her.

After all, the reverse happened when people fled cities to begin with. Remote places became coronavirus hotspots when visitors unknowingly imported it.

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That was the worst-case scenario, Alan Morgan, the CEO of the National Rural Health Association, told Business Insider at the time. "Not only are you taxing the local community by being there, you're bringing the problem in with you," Morgan said.

If you decide to change locations and may have been exposed to the virus during your time away or on your journey back, it's safest to quarantine for two weeks upon your return to avoid spreading the virus to your neighbors.

A woman wearing a protective visor bikes through Paris on May 13, 2020.Samuel Boivin/NurPhoto/Getty Images

Consider your transportation options

How you get home is a key factor to consider, too.

According to a New York Times survey of 511 epidemiologists, 56% said they might take an overnight trip this summer within driving distance. Less than 20% said they'd take a plane in the next few months.

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One participant called planes "a flying tube of germs."

"Driving is likely safer than flying," Bell told Insider. "If the drive is long, make plans in advance about where you will stay, and where you will make brief stops. Packing supplies, including food for the road, can help limit the need to stop in potentially crowded places."

If you must fly, take a cue from Michaela George, an epidemiologist at the Dominican University of California, who told the Times she would get on a plane now: "I would bring a blanket or sheet to sit on, my own food and water, multiple masks (in case one gets uncomfortable), gloves, hand sanitizer, and wipes."

Your values and mental health matter too, but remember we're still in a pandemic

For Mitchell, the coronavirus-related risks of returning to New York were outweighed by her sense of duty to the community. "It's very bittersweet," she said. "I'm excited to come back but sad to leave."

For others, the coronavirus dangers could be outweighed by the need to care for loved ones who remained or to receive physically distanced social support from friends.

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Even as New York City begins to reopen, much of what gave it its character remains closed. We're still in a pandemic.Crystal Cox/Business Insider

But ultimately, experts say it's important to remember we're still in a pandemic. Some states are already experiencing case surges due to reopenings and Memorial Day weekend gatherings, and some experts predict more to pop up related to protests.

How people make decisions about returning to the places they've left will affect the virus's trajectory, too.

"We've been watching the cases go down and down, and it looks like the curve is flattened, but I can't promise we won't see another spike after all of this communal gathering," Dr. Howard Markel, a professor at the University of Michigan Medical School and expert in the history of epidemics, told Insider.

Markel said he'd have his stethoscope taken away if he advised taking a gamble on our nation's health. "As long as you're in a safe place," he said, "why go?"

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