I am personally planning a return to 'normal' in Fall…2021

• People are already talking about reopening the US economy, but it may be too early to expect things to get back to "normal."
• To get to that point, a vaccine probably needs to be developed, mass produced, and distributed. That could take until Fall 2021 at the earliest.
• We may end up getting closer to normal earlier, or it could take longer. But setting realistic expectations is key.
• Nicholas Carlson is the Global Editor-in-Chief of Insider, the publication best known for Business Insider.
• This is an opinion column. The thoughts expressed are those of the author.
• Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.

When I was in middle school and high school, I ran for the track team. My race was the two-mile, eight laps around the track.

I was not a particularly gifted runner, and when I first started running that distance during races, it felt excruciating.

But over time, I learned to pace myself mentally as well as physically. If I knew exactly how much further I had to go, I could get through the pain by counting down the laps.

But this only worked if I had the right lap count in my head.

A few times over the years, I'd be running and I'd think I was on lap eight, and I'd set I'd find out it was still only lap seven.

This was always a miserable moment.

I'm worried that billions of us, as we mentally prepare for the endurance trial of this pandemic, think we are on lap seven or eight, when actually we are on lap one or two.

Earlier this week, I saw that cruise bookings for 2021 are up 40% compared to the same period in 2019. This is baffling.

I also get the sense that many Americans are overrating the pace of return from several economists who believe we are in for a rapid or "V-shaped" economic recovery.

In contrast to these cheery predictions, I don't think normal life is coming back any time soon.

Cruises, concerts, graduations, and Super Bowls are things you do in normal life.

So is traveling, shopping in malls, staying in hotels, going to movies and theme parks and conventions and barbecues. So is riding the subway to work. So is working in an office!

To mentally pace myself for a long run ahead, the date I'm circling on my calendar is the Fall of 2021.

I'm ignoring some of the more pessimistic pessimistic experts in doing so. Some optimists say things will snap back much sooner. I hope they are right and I am wrong! But I'm (trying) to set myself up for pleasant surprises, rather than nasty ones.

Why do I think "normal" comes back in 2021?

Basically, because that's how long most experts – people like Anthony Fauci and Melinda Gates – think it will take to create, manufacture and distribute a vaccine.

One Wall Street biotech research analyst believes there's only a 20% chance of a vaccine helping in 2021, and gives 2023 only a 50% chance. I hope he's wrong, but it's true that these things usually take five to 10 years to invent and distribute. And this one has to go to billions of people. That's really hard.

Why do only vaccines mean life is normal?

A widely distributed vaccine the only way vulnerable people – the elderly and those with common comorbidities such as diabetes, asthma, obesity, and heart problems – will be able to fully trust that encounters with others, who, even if they appear healthy, could be asymptomatic carriers of the virus.

There are other things we can do to bring back semblances of normality sooner. The White House announced a plan on Thursday to "open up" the country in three phases.

But life in all of three phases does not sound normal to me.

Here are the three phases from my colleague in Washington, DC, Kayla Epstein:

"In Phase 1, people are still encouraged to avoid groups of more than 10 people, minimize travel if possible, and adhere to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention isolation guidelines if they do need to travel. Employers should encourage telework, close common areas, and minimize travel, though attempt to return to work in phases. Some public venues may open up with 'strict social distancing' guidelines, but day care and camp would remain closed and visits to senior living facilities would be forbidden. Sit-down restaurants, but not bars, would be permitted to ease into opening."

"In Phase 2, people should avoid groups of more than 50 people and continue social-distancing techniques. Nonessential travel can resume. Companies should continue to encourage telework and keep public spaces closed, but nonessential business travel can resume. Some cornerstones of everyday American life, including bars, gyms, and schools, can reopen with physical-distancing protocols. But visits to senior living facilities is still prohibited."

"In Phase 3, vulnerable people can ease back into public life, while taking precautions. People could go back to work, and visit their loved ones in senior living facilities and hospitals. Large venues such as houses of worship and theaters could resume operations, with physical distancing protocols. And more people will be allowed into bars."

None of that sounds like going back to a pre-coronavirus "normal" to me..

And it's going to be a while before we can even get to phase 1. As Epstein writes: "the guidelines rely heavily on the assumption that testing of symptomatic and asymptomatic people and contact tracing for the novel coronavirus will increase. At the moment, the US has yet to sufficiently scale up these methods."

This is going to take a long time.

So what does this mean for right now?

As a society we need to figure out our new, interim "normal." We can't stop working – paying each other's salaries, really – so as best we can, we need to build a new economy around a temporarily more socially-distant culture. Unfortunately this economy will, like the "normal" one have "haves" and "have nots." The "haves" are people who can work from home and do their jobs safely.

The "have nots" will be healthcarw workers compelled to do their jobs regardless and workers all along the supply and delivery chain. Companies (and governments) need to make sure those people are made as safe as possible. That means universal paid sick leave, an abundance of protective gear, and lots more pay. Shareholders should focus less on profits and more on continuing operations that help the economy run.

In our personal lives, it means we each need to build up routines for the long haul. Buy a better desk chair so your back doesn't crap out. Figure out how to get exercise. Get therapy over your phones. Rent a goat for your next Zoom dinner party.

I might be wrong!

I could totally be wrong about Fall 2021. And that would probably be great.

I say probably because one way I could be wrong is that society could decide to stop protecting its most vulnerable and embrace lots of death.

We're already seeing people protesting in favor of that in Midwestern states like Michigan. If those folks get their way, we'd return to true normal a lot sooner than I expect, and frankly, it'd most likely fine for me and my restaurant habit. But lots of people would die sooner than if we moved that way in a more gradual manner, and I don't know if a good haircut and martini really balances the moral equation.

But I could also be wrong because more good things happen!

For example, even as I've been writing this column over the past week we saw promising news from Gilead, the giant pharmaceutical company working on a treatment for COVID-19 patients. In a study conducted in a Chicago hospital, lots of patients taking Gilead's new drug got better faster than expected.

It's also possible – though unlikely – that a lot more of us have had this disease than we know, and we are closer to "herd immunity" than most experts believe.

I am not counting on it, but wouldn't that be nice?

One thing to keep in mind…

Even when we're back to normal, it won't be normal. Anthony Fauci thinks we're never going to shake hands again.

And, honestly, working from home hasn't been terrible for me or Insider Inc. We're already talking about letting more people do it if they can remain as effective as they have during these lockdowns. ]

People might not be willing to switch back to "hard pants" (that is, non-sweatpants). And I'm going to keep my newly-grown mustache for a bit.

Sadly, lots of businesses that were thriving two months ago will stay gone forever.

But we're going to hug each other again. We'll see our older relatives again. We'll cheer at the movies and in giant stadiums again.

Music will thrum through you at a concert, and you'll bump into the dude next to you and he'll get some beer on you, and you'll smile because how great is that?

We'll get all that back.

It's just not going to be for a while, and I'm trying to make sure I'm ready to go the distance.