This map shows the risk COVID poses to every single US state. It puts Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Florida at 'severe'.
- Every US state is at high risk from COVID-19, according to a leading US non-profit.
- Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Florida are at the "severe" level, Covid Act Now's data shows.
- Risk depends on case rate, infections, data quality, ICU capacity, vaccinations and socio-economic factors.
Every US state is at "high risk" or worse from COVID-19, with Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Florida at the highest "severe" level, according to data from a non-profit.
Massachusetts, New York and Minnesota are among the 24 states deemed "high risk", the second-highest level, by Covid Act Now's US COVID risk and vaccine tracker, which mostly uses Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data.
Texas, California and Nevada, are among 23 states deemed "very high risk," the third highest level.
There are five risk levels. No state fell into the fourth or fifth risk levels.
Covid Act Now's risk calculations are determined by the number of new daily cases, infection rate, data quality, ICU capacity, percentage of people vaccinated and their vulnerability to COVID, including socio-economic factors.
It uses a data tool from Surgo Ventures, a non-profit with expertise in behavioral and data science that's partnered with Stanford, Harvard and Georgetown Universities, to calculate a state's vulnerability.
The 24 "high-risk" states are: Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Ohio, West Virginia, Virginia, Maryland, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maine.
The 23 "very high-risk" states are: Washington, Oregon, California, Nevada, Idaho, Utah, Arizona, Wyoming, Alaska, Hawaii, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Vermont, New Hampshire.
Below is a breakdown of Covid Act Now's data on the four states at the "severe" level. "Positive test rate" is the percentage of COVID PCR testing that comes back positive. It's a measure of Covid Act Now's confidence in the underlying data - more than 20% suggests inadequate testing.
Arkansas
New COVID-19 cases each day: 75.7 per 100,000
Infection rate: 1.11
Positive test rate: 11.9%
Population fully vaccinated: 37.7% (US average is 50.3%)
ICU capacity used: 79% -404 of 1050 (38%) COVID-19 patients
Vulnerability to COVID-19: higher than most states - 36% of the population in a 'high vulnerability' area.
Louisiana
New COVID-19 cases each day: 115.7 per 100,000
Infection rate: 1.24
Positive test rate: 16.3%
Population fully vaccinated: 37.6%
ICU capacity used: 84% - 759 of 1763 (43%) COVID-19 patients
Vulnerability to COVID-19: higher vulnerability than most states - 43% of the population in a 'high vulnerability' area.
Mississippi
New COVID-19 cases each day: 79.5 per 100,000
Infection rate: 1.28
Positive test rate: 22.1%
Population fully vaccinated: 35.2%
ICU capacity used: 86% - 366 of 856 (47% ) COVID-19 patients
Vulnerability to COVID-19: one of the most vulnerable states - 52% of the population in a high vulnerability area.
Florida
New COVID-19 cases each day: 127.3
Infection rate: 1.24
Positive test rate: 20.1%
Population fully vaccinated: 49.7%
ICU capacity used: 90% - 2,754 of 6,552 (42%) COVID-19 patients
Vulnerability to COVID-19: one of the most vulnerable states - 62% of the population in a high vulnerability area.