From new variant IHU to utility of booster doses ⁠— these are five lessons India can learn from the third wave of COVID-19 in other countries

• Omicron may be a milder variant than Delta but it’s too soon to be sure of that.
• If you haven’t taken the first two shots of the vaccine, the risk of infection and hospitalisation is higher.
• Taking a third dose of the COVID-19 vaccine may provide better protection against the virus.
• The third wave of COVID-19 infections may peak in India by February first week.
• Countries like the US and UK have refrained from imposing stringent restrictions on people’s movement despite rising cases.

There are at least 5 learnings emerging from different countries facing the third wave of COVID-19 infections where the most number of cases are that of the latest variant, Omicron.

First, Omicron is likely to be a milder variant although the World Health Organisation has said that it needs more data to make that point conclusively. Moreover the emergence of a new variant called IHU, discovered by researchers in France, which is likely to be stronger than Omicron, has increased the need for caution.

Second, the WHO has said that the risk of infection and the potential need for hospitalisation is higher for those who have not taken the vaccines.

Third, India’s covid cases would peak by February 2

Source: Worldometers
Note: Data, as of January 3, 2022

The forecast, from researchers at IIT Kanpur, is based on the assumption that India will follow the trends of rise in cases seen in other countries. The research also used the rate of increase in cases from the first and second waves in India.

Fourth, a booster dose may be needed

New studies conducted in the United Kingdom have revealed that the third dose of the Covid-19 vaccine may be necessary to boost a person’s resistance to the Omicron variant by as much as 88%. This is a significantly higher degree of protection against the latest variant when compared to the second dose, whose effectiveness begins to reduce after a period of six months.

Oxford has said that a third booster shot of AstraZeneca-Oxford Covid-19 vaccine Vaxzevria is necessary to boost the antibody levels. Covershield is the Indian version of Vaxzevria, manufactured by the Serum Institute of India (SII)

Fifth, night curfews are useless and other countries have refrained from stringent restrictions on movement of people.

Even though the US and UK are recording high covid-19 cases on a daily basis, the countries have decided not to introduce any new restrictions.

However, work from home has once again become a norm in these countries.

Many states in India, on the other hand, have proactively imposed night curfews, weekend lockdowns and other such restrictions in order to beat the third wave. Whereas, the need may be to enforce the COVID-19 protocols in places, and at times, when crowds do gather for business or otherwise.

Even now, large crowds sans social distancing, and people without masks on the street, is not a rare sight in India.

However, the policy response has been limited to night curfews. WHO Chief Scientist Soumya Swaminathan, in a TV interview, noted that there is no science behind night curfews when it comes to tackling Covid-9. "Entertainment venues are places where these viruses spread the most. It's natural to bring in some restrictions there," he added.

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