ICMR predicts third wave of COVID-19 to be less severe than the second wave — Delhi, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh may see a decline

• It highlighted that the states or districts where the cases were low may witness a high number of cases.
• Delhi, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh may ideally see a dip in the number of COVID-19 cases or at least may not be hit as badly as the previous wave.
• The major reason behind this could be strong immunity acquired post-vaccination, which can decrease the number of symptomatic cases in every state.

The possibility of a third wave of COVID-19 projected to hit the country any time between September and October could likely be less severe than the previous wave in May-June, which devastated the whole country, according to the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR).

A study backed by ICMR and Imperial College of London’s CHROMIC model predicts that Delhi, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh may ideally see a dip in the number of COVID-19 cases or at least may not be hit as badly as the previous wave.

The major reason behind this could be strong immunity acquired post-vaccination, which can decrease the number of symptomatic cases in every state.

Dr. Samiran Panda, ICMR’s epidemiology and communicable disease (ECD) head said, as quoted by The Times of India, “Nobody can predict the third wave for the whole country. It will now make sense only if district or state-specific data are used for specific projections. The wave may rear its head only if states remove restrictions prematurely.”

He further said that the third wave is likely to arrive only when there is a decline in natural or vaccination boosted immunities, a new and more dangerous variant takes birth like Delta variant or there is a relaxation in the states without following appropriate COVID behaviour or people refraining themselves from getting the vaccine shots.

Dr. Panda also highlighted that the states or districts where the cases were low may witness a high number of cases, whereas states/districts that reported a high number of cases may hit with a low number of cases during the third wave.

He further strongly urged the states to not allow mass gatherings. “Intensified vaccination and following COVID protocols is the only way ahead”, he added.


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