Forget keto — Ozempic might finally kill the low-carb diet trend

• Weight loss drugs like Ozempic are overtaking keto in popularity, a new report shows.
• GLP-1 drugs lead to significant weight loss and are changing consumer habits.

Hold the butter — the rise of weight loss medications may be signaling an end to popular high-fat, low-carb diet trends.

Americans are now looking up Ozempic more frequently than keto on Google, according to the 2024 mid-year Consumer Trends report from The New Consumer and Coefficient Capital.

The keto diet, based on eating a whopping 70% to 80% of daily calories from fat sources and as little as 5% from carbs, has been a dominant force in the diet world for over a decade. Along the way, consumers' hunger for low-carb alternatives to their favorite treats has sparked a massive market of ostensibly better-for-you snacks, from zero-sugar candy to high-protein chips and cookies.

The global market for keto products was valued at more than $9 billion in 2019. But among Americans, interest appears to have stalled out in recent years: In surveys commissioned by the International Food Information Council, the share of self-identified dieters who reported following a keto or high-fat diet in the past year dropped to 4% in 2023 from 7% in 2022.

At the same time, Ozempic has emerged — a brand name for the drug semaglutide, which has become the eponym for a class of medications called GLP-1s that can lead to unprecedented weight loss.

As keto fades away, it's making room for a lucrative market catering to GLP-1 users' smaller but more refined appetites instead.

Some doctors have called keto the worst diet for health

Despite hitting its stride in the mid-2010s, the keto diet has been around for at least a century.

Whether branded as Atkins, the Zone diet, or just called low-carb, keto promised that you could shed pounds and boost health by eating the foods conventional wisdom had forbidden, from juicy burgers with cheese to steaks slathered in butter.

But for doctors, the potential weight loss boon comes with major caveats, prompting keto to earn the title of "worst diet for healthy eating" several years in a row.

Eating too much saturated fat and cholesterol has been linked to a higher risk of heart disease and other illnesses. Consuming processed meats like sausages and ham has been tied to higher odds of developing cancer. Both saturated fat and processed meats are popular in low-carb diet variations like "dirty keto," full of junk food.

Still, the allure of losing weight while eating bacon and burgers has persisted, and research has uncovered promising benefits of low-carb diets for controlling blood sugar levels, managing diabetes, and potentially aiding weight loss.

Weight loss meds offer a new way to stop cravings and shed pounds

Semaglutide, the active ingredient in Ozempic, received FDA approval as a weight management treatment in 2021.

Now, between 8 million to 20 million Americans are using some type of GLP-1 medication, according to estimates from The New Consumer report. There could be another 25 million to 50 million users over the next few years, the report suggests.

GLP-1 drugs work for weight loss by mimicking various hormones that naturally occur in the human body and help regulate appetite.

For patients, the medications help to combat "food noise," a persistent preoccupation with food and eating that can make long-term dieting difficult. GLP-1s can even make crave-able treats like fried foods or sweets seem less delicious.

As a result, weight loss drugs are changing the way we eat, and the food industry is taking note. GLP-1 users make up the biggest share of people trying new grocery products, and they're more willing to splurge on expensive items, according to the recent trend report.

The race is on among pharmaceutical companies to develop medications with even more powerful benefits and fewer side effects.

But low-carb diets still have a major advantage over Ozempic

While semaglutide and other GLP-1s have been called a "game changer" for weight loss, they're still largely unavailable to many people who might benefit.

The medications can cost $1,000 or more a month, making affordability the biggest barrier for people seeking GLP-1 treatment, followed by a lack of insurance coverage. Frequent shortages have also prompted a booming gray market for compounded GLP-1s, which the FDA has warned can be ineffective and potentially risky.

Even the brand name drugs come with side effects, most commonly mild to moderate symptoms like nausea or vomiting.

In contrast, a major draw of low-carb diets has always been ease of access, offering a means for people to try fixing their health at home without a doctor's visit, dietitian-approved meal plan, or calorie-counting app.

Combined with an emerging trend of food-as-medicine, tackling health issues at the grocery store instead of the pharmacy is still attractive to many people.

Ozempic's star is still rising, but as long as the steep costs and healthcare hurdles persist, low-carb diets are likely to linger, even if only on the fringes.

Correction: July 24, 2024 — An earlier version of this story misrepresented a keto-related finding of a survey. The survey, from the International Food Information Council, found that the share of respondents who said they'd followed a keto diet fell by 3 percentage points, to 4%, from 2022 to 2023; it did not fall by 4% in 2023.