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Business Insider IndiaMicrosoft co-founder Bill Gates at a Ted Talk in 2015Screenshot/ TED Youtube channel
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Bill Gates warned the world that the next global crisis to hit the world, wouldn’t be a war, but a highly infectious virus.
During a Ted Talk in 2015, Gates pointed out that a global healthcare system needs to be put in place to come out ahead of the problem.
He suggested five ways in which the world can prepare itself for when the next epidemic takes place.
Five years before the coronavirus outbreak — when the world was recovering from the Ebola epidemic — Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates warned the world that another healthcare disaster could be on its way.
“If anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades, it’s most likely to be a highly infectious virus rather than a war — not missiles but microbes,” he said during a 2015 Ted Talk.
Unlike Hollywood, where a group of handsome epidemiologists fly into a crisis and save the day — the reality on the ground is very different, Gates had said. However, preparing for an outbreak isn’t all that different from preparing from a health crisis.
“We can build a really good response. We have the benefits of all the science and technology that we talk about. We’ve got cellphones to get information from the public and get information out to them. We have satellite maps where we can see where people are and where they’re moving,” he said.
According to Gates, we already have the tools — we just need to put them into the overall global health system. His company has already demonstrated one way of doing that. Microsoft Bing released an interactive map tool that lets people follow the spread of the infection online.
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Here’s what Microsoft co-founder suggests are the key pieces to fight off an epidemic:
During the Ebola virus epidemic, there was no one to look at treatment options, support diagnostics or even figure out the kind of tools that would be useful for solving the problem.
“As an example, we could have taken the blood of survivors, processed it, and put that plasma back in people to protect them. But that was never tried,” said Gates.
However, with the coronavirus, China has used plasma from patients who recovered from the infection to treat over a dozen critically ill patients in Wuhan. It worked because the patients recovered from the illness produce antibodies that can kill the virus.
Germ games, not war games
NATO has a mobile unit that can be deployed at any time and it plays out multiple war games in a year to check if people are trained for a crisis situation — how to manage fuel, keep track of the logistics and other crucial tasks during a time of war.
Similarly, there need to be germ games in place to train teams on how to respond during an epidemic or pandemic.
“We need to do simulations — germs games, not war games — so that we see where the holes are. The last time a germ game was done in the US was back in 2001, and it didn’t go so well,” said Gates.
Fix the healthcare systems in poor countries
The earlier a virus is caught, the sooner it can be controlled and eradicated. The Ebola virus didn’t get out of hand because the infection wasn’t spread through air and by the time someone was contagious, they were normally bed-ridden.
“There was a lot of heroic work by the health workers. They found the people and prevented more infections,” said Gates explaining how most of the fatalities were concentrated in three West African countries.
However, an air-borne contagion — similar to the Spanish Flu — could result in as many as 30 million deaths, which is why it’s important to spot it early.
“We need strong health systems in poor countries. That’s why mothers should be able to give birth safely, kids can get all their vaccines, but also where we’ll see the outbreak early on,” said Gates.
Ready-to-go medical teams
Even during the Ebola virus outbreak, the world healthcare system didn’t have a group of epidemiologists ready to go. The results only came out on paper, taking up time before they were finally available online. Even then, the analysis of those reports wasn’t accurate.
In order to keep an outbreak from getting out of control, there needs to be a team on the ground that can not only handle the risk, but also send back information in a timely and efficient manner.
“We need a medical reserve corps. Lots of people who have the training and background, and who are ready to go with the expertise,” said Gates.
Para medical-military forces
The expertise of the armed forces can be a big boon during a global health crisis. Pairing up teams from the military with emergency medical professionals can significantly boost the chances of success.
“We need to pair those medical people with the military, taking advantage of the military’s ability to move fast, do logistics, and secure areas,” said Gates.