- Satellite imagery of a Russian naval base in September revealed strange movements at the facility.
- On multiple occasions, Russia partially or completely dispersed its naval vessels at Novorossiysk.
Satellite imagery of a key Russian naval base along the Black Sea has revealed strange behavior, specifically dozens of military vessels dispersing from the facility, only to return a little later.
The images, collected by BlackSky in September and obtained by Business Insider, show Russia either partially or completely dispersing its naval vessels from the port of Novorossiysk for brief periods on three separate occasions that month.
The puzzling behavior has not yet been attributed to anything in particular, but it comes against the backdrop of a Ukrainian long-range strike campaign against the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
The Black Sea Fleet was long headquartered at Sevastopol, in the southwestern corner of the occupied Crimean peninsula. But a series of high-profile Ukrainian missile and naval drone attacks on the port forced Russia to withdraw its warships to bases in Feodosia, on the other side of Crimea, and Novorossiysk, in western Russia.
The attacks have not ceased, and Ukraine has targeted Novorossiysk with drones multiple times this year.
More than 50 vessels — a mix of surface warships, submarines, supply ships, and tugboats — are typically stationed at Novorossiysk, according to BlackSky's imagery and analytics. The company provides space-based real-time intelligence and has collected hundreds of port images since June 2023.
But in September, BlackSky detected some unusual behavior for the first time: the military vessels left Novorossiysk briefly before returning. It observed three separate instances revealing a partial and complete dispersal of ships from the port.
Imagery from September 2, shows the Black Sea Fleet actively abandoning the port at Novorossiysk, with over two dozen vessels observed leaving the port for the harbor.
According to BlackSky's imagery and analytics, similar activity was detected the following week on September 11, with just seven vessels remaining in the port.
And then a few days later, on September 14, there were no naval vessels at Novorossiysk for the first time. Some were seen hiding in the nearby commercial port, though.
An intelligence analyst familiar with the imagery and data, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, described the Russian behavior as "a new tactic," though it is unclear to what end.
"The most fascinating thing is when the ships cleared out, there wasn't an attack that followed," the analyst told BI, adding that such activity hasn't been observed before at Novorossiysk.
"It's a brand-new phenomenon of naval ships completely evacuating the port. They just have nowhere else to go."
The analyst said the vessels don't go very far when they disperse, noting that "they mostly sit and loiter outside of the port where they cluster up and are still susceptible to an attack."
It's not clear why Russia moved its vessels around in such a way, as the ship movement doesn't appear to align with any publicly disclosed attack on Novorossiysk.
There was some locally reported naval drone activity near the port in early September; however, Ukraine did not announce its involvement, which it normally does after an attack on the Black Sea Fleet.
Russia held large-scale naval exercises between September 10 and 16, but there was no involvement from ships in the Black Sea. Western intelligence said this was "highly likely" because of Ukrainian attacks during the first half of the year.
Some analysts have speculated that the dispersal may have been Russia's reaction to reports at the time that said the US and UK were getting closer to dropping restrictions on Ukraine's use of their long-range missiles. Kyiv has long been barred from using these powerful weapons to strike military targets inside Russia.
While these restrictions are still in place, Ukraine has demonstrated throughout the war that it has a long reach with its own domestically produced cruise missiles, long-range attack drones, and naval drones.
Brady Africk, an open-source intelligence analyst and associate at the American Enterprise Institute think tank, told BI that Ukraine has steadily developed its long-range strike capabilities, which can threaten an increasing number of Russian military assets.
"When it comes to Sevastopol and Novorossiysk, we've seen Ukraine succeed in targeting Russian vessels in these harbors several times," said Africk, who works with satellite imagery to track Black Sea activity.
"That's prompted Russia to not only add layers of defenses to harbor entrances but further disperse their assets within these sites," he added.
Satellite imagery has captured Russia's extensive efforts to shield its ports from Ukrainian attacks. For instance, at Novorossiysk, Moscow has placed barges and floating boom defenses to add more protection.
Russia has increased its combat air patrols in other areas of the Black Sea and put more guns on its warships, a general in the Security Service of Ukraine, or SBU, previously told BI, but attacks continue to get through.
Africk said that, unlike the significant Russian dispersal from Sevastopol, which was a significant reaction to Ukraine's increasing ability to strike the Black Sea Fleet at longer distances, the situation at Novorossiysk has been more piecemeal.
In other words, naval assets have been moved on less consistent bases and under certain conditions, like when Moscow is concerned about a potential attack.
Ukraine's Black Sea campaign has been a defining success in the war. A senior US defense official said last month that Kyiv has sunk, destroyed, or damaged at least 32 medium and large Russian naval vessels and, in the process, driven Moscow's naval forces away from Crimea.
Africk said "Ukraine has created a situation where Russian naval assets have fewer and fewer places to hide, especially the closer they are to territory controlled by Kyiv."