Russia Took Crimea - What Happens Next Is Critical
REUTERS/Vasily FedosenkoMilitary personnel, believed to be Russian servicemen, stand guard outside the territory of a Ukrainian military unit, with Ukrainian and Crimean flags seen in the background, in the village of Perevalnoye outside Simferopol March 2, 2014.Over the last few days, Russia has invaded the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea by taking over its airspace and airports, its highways, its ports, its television stations, and its regional government.
On Sunday, hundreds of armed men in trucks and armored vehicles surrounded a Ukrainian military base in Crimea, blocking its soldiers from leaving. Russian troops are reportedly urging the Ukrainians to give up arms and support the peninsula's pro-Moscow regional authorities.
The new head of Ukraine's navy has sworn allegiance to the Crimea region. Ukraine has withdrawn its coast guard vessels from two ports in Crimea and moved them to other Black Sea bases, which signals that Russian forces are "completing their seizure of the isolated Black Sea peninsula."
Ukraine says will ask for Western help if Russia keeps building up forces in the Ukrainian territory, but there's not a whole lot that the West can do. And Ukraine does not have full-member status in NATO, so the U.S. and Europe have no obligation to come to its defense.
Michael Weiss explains in The Daily Beast:
What remains to be seen is whether or not a formal annexation of Crimea will take place or whether the peninsula will be run as another "semi-autonomous" satellite of Moscow, or simply serve as a waiting room for what [Russian President Vladimir] Putin hopes will happen next: the fall of the Euromaidan government in Kiev.
Ukraine is broke and increasingly desperate for aid as a government default becomes a possibility. Russia has a lot of economic leverage in Ukraine, partly because the Kremlin provides 58% of the gas consumed in the country of 46 million.
Russia has not recognized the new pro-EU government in Kiev, and Putin wants it to fail. The question is what he does about it.
On Friday, ousted President Viktor Yanukovych spoke from the southern Russian port city of Rostov-on-Don, where he is under Kremlin protection.
"Russia needs to use all of the leverage it has to prevent, the terror, that is unfolding in Ukraine," he said, adding that he considers himself president and the new government illegitimate.
Wikimedia CommonsThis map, which shows the common native languages in urban and rural councils as of 2001, illustrates Crimea's closeness to Russia. Blue is Ukrainian and red is Russian.