In his latest Breakfast with Dave note, Rosenberg identifies 10 global economic and political concerns.
We paraphrase here:
- Emerging market balance of payments/currency problems that are reminiscent of the 1997 Asian financial crisis.
- Looming debt ceiling debate in Washington.
- Fed tapering isn't a sure thing for September, " but if not, it speaks to weakening economic backdrop."
- A third Greek bailout and that while Europe might have emerged from a recession, there is no catalyst for a recovery.
- U.S. GDP estimates are being revised down.
- Recent economic data shows that Canada has hit a "rough patch."
- "Some countries are contracting now (Thailand, Mexico and Netherlands)."
- "Sharp bond spasm… spillover effects to other markets? Long bond is -17.5% in total return in the past 3+ months (which only happened twice before)."
- Poor earnings for American retailers and a weak start to the back-to-school shopping season.
- The "leadership vacuum at the Fed." The absence of a Bernanke speech at Jackson Hole also makes the policy backdrop unclear.
If these prove to be correct, they "point to a near-term drop in bond yields, weaker commodities/resource currencies, more volatility equity markets and an overall better tone of the rate-sensitive equity sectors (SIRP), and likely put a bid into the USD, yen, Swiss franc, Sterling (defensive currencies)," he writes.