You're about to start eating more meatloaf and ice cream due to a likely recession, which could cause 'flavor fatigue,' experts say

• Analysts think a recession is increasingly likely, as food inflation exceeds 9%.
• Trend experts said comfort food like ice cream and meatloaf was likely to shoot up in response.

As wallets begin to get pinched by rising costs, which have been instigated by supply shortages and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the increased stress and worry might make some want to reach for the nearest ice cream tub.

Experts say there's a reason for this — and it might cause big changes to the way we eat amid a growing feeling that a recession, and perhaps stagflation, are only a few months away.

Customers are beginning to budget

The 40-year-high inflation rates in the US are partly a result of huge pent-up demand brought on by stimulus checks and the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions, with Americans increasing their spending with the comfort of record savings rates.

Now, with gas prices expected to hit $6 a gallon this summer and food inflation surpassing 9% in what is seen as the toughest cost of living crunch in years, it appears they are pulling back on spending.

In their latest earnings calls, Walmart and Target planned to pass some costs onto consumers, who were already beginning to change their eating habits and buying more essentials like dairy, tuna, and other animal proteins.

'Flavor fatigue' will drive meatloaf and ice cream sales

But as people cut back on restaurant meals and increasingly scrimp, some experts predict a surge in simple luxuries to offset new, austere habits. Leith Steel of San Francisco-based Carbonate, a brand communications industry specializing in hospitality, told Insider that people search for comfort in times of economic hardship.

"We saw a huge surge in comfort foods [during the recession of 2008/09]. Ice cream sales went way up, because it's indulgent but relatively inexpensive," Steel said. "Meatloaf went up because it's comforting and made from scraps." Indeed, a TIME article from 2010 reported that some ice cream vendors saw sales shoot up by 25% between 2009 and 2010.

Steel said that with inflation rising, people would go out to restaurants less and opt instead for comfort at home.

Alex Hayes, co-founder of UK-based food and drink consultancy Harris and Hayes, agreed that comfort food purchases would rise. The psychological reason, she said, came from something called "flavor fatigue."

"Flavor fatigue is a theory suggesting that when times are trickier, people look to simpler flavors which take less energy to process," Hayes said. "It helps explain why comfort foods sales rise in a recession, before switching back to more adventurous foods and flavors when economies return to growth."

"We also see a 'to hell with it attitude,' where people look for comfort, experience, and escape through their choices," Hayes added. Her final point perhaps explained why Walmart said they were experiencing increased sales of luggage as pandemic-era restrictions unwind.

Fewer vegetables but more 'flexitarians'

A surge in comfort eating may come at the price of healthier eating habits, particularly as fresh food prices rise and impact the demand for vegetables.

"Fresh vegetables are considerably more expensive than they were last year, resulting in a slump in fresh sales," Hayes said.

Emilie Vanpoperinghe, founder Oddbox, a UK-based food company that delivers oddly-shaped vegetables to customers, told Insider that in times of high inflation vegetables were typically the first item to be left behind.

"When there's pressure on the cost of living people move away from fruit and veg, to more calorific food, Vanpoperinghe said. "Fresh produce is going to suffer with inflation because a lot of people can't afford this healthy diet when they're struggling with the cost of living."

While that might mean fewer vegans, Hayes from Harris and Hayes said increased "flexitarianism," the trend of eating meat sparingly, which has accelerated in recent years, was likely to persist.

"This is not only part of a sustainable lifestyle. It's also to navigate the rising costs of animal proteins," Hayes said. "Those that do eat meat or fish are seeking out cheaper cuts, and experimenting with ways of making it go further."