Restaurants rehired nearly 1.4 million workers in May. Here's why that number may be less impressive than it sounds.
- 1.37 million jobs returned to the restaurant industry in May, according to a report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- However, this number is not necessarily indicative of a strong recovery in the restaurant industry.
- Seasonality, Paycheck Protection Program loans, and stimulus checks may have all played a role in rehiring, meaning the jobs gains may not be permanent.
- The restaurant industry still faces significant barriers to recovery, and as long as dining rooms are required to operate at limited capacity, the eight million restaurant jobs lost during the pandemic won't fully return.
In May, 1.37 million jobs returned to the restaurant industry, according to a recent report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But that number may not be quite as impressive as it seems.
Restaurants are among the businesses hit hardest by the pandemic and shutdowns. Eight million restaurant jobs disappeared by mid-April, with one in five restaurants set to close permanently as a result of the pandemic. These numbers show that even with the jobs regained in May, the industry still has a long way to go to reach pre-pandemic employment levels.
Restaurant analyst John Gordon of Pacific Management Consulting Group told Business Insider that a combination of steadily increasing to-go sales and dining room reopenings have likely contributed to the return of some jobs. However, Gordon cautioned that there may be a seasonal factor in the rehiring, as well.
"We're in the strongest seasonal points of the year," Gordon said. "The weather gets better. People go outside, more people start to travel around."
Another reason to rein in optimism over the 1.37 million jobs gained is that it may not necessarily reflect an overall trend of recovery in the industry.
Restaurant owners received stimulus loans from the Paycheck Protection Program in April and May. In order to qualify for loan forgiveness, recipients were originally required to spend 75% of their loan on payroll expenses within eight weeks of receiving their loans. The jobs bump in May could reflect those loan forgiveness guidelines, which incentivized restaurant owners to hire back staffers before they could generate the business that would make those rehires sustainable.
The PPP loan forgiveness guidelines were changed on June 4 to reduce the payroll requirement to 60% and extend the forgiveness period to 24 weeks. But with dine-in capacity limited to 50% or even 25% in most locales, it will be a long time before most restaurants are able to operate at full capacity and hire back all their employees.
Gordon says that the effect of the PPP loans on job gains is not quantifiable, and that the $1,200 stimulus check that many Americans received may have also provided a temporary bump in discretionary spending. To identify signs of a permanent recovery, Gordon advises following overall employment numbers.
"The factor that most strongly correlates to restaurant sales is nonfarm payrolls," Gordon said.
The BLS report shows that nonfarm employment remained largely static between April and May, increasing from 130.4 million employed to 132.9 million employed. Nearly 1.4 million of those recovered jobs are in the restaurant sector.