Earlier this month, Birkenstock's highly-anticipated IPO took an unexpected turn.
Initially the German shoe brand expected shares to reach $46 at an estimated $8 billion valuation, but shares traded at just $41, making it one of the worst debuts for a billion-dollar company in a decade.
Many were surprised by the lackluster debut because the company is all about consistency, dependability, and function. In other words, it's as safe a bet as fashion brands come. In its initial filing, the company reported $1.3 billion in 2022 revenue. The company also said that 90% of customers come through unpaid channels, such as word-of-mouth, and the average customer owns three pairs of Birkenstocks.
For nearly 250 years, craftsmanship and comfort have been the cornerstones of Birkenstock's success. Fads come and go, but Birkenstock found a market for shoes people can grow old with. If you need proof that the shoe can weather a lifetime of downturns, just take a look at Steve Job's worn-but-still-wearable Birks that sold at auction for $200,000.
Meanwhile, it doesn't seem Birkenstock is anywhere on GenZ's radar — an indication that perhaps the brand's generational reach is limited to the 30-and-above crowd. In a recent report by investment bank Piper Sandler that ranked the top brands among American teens, Birkenstock was nowhere to be found. In its initial filing, Birkenstock reported that 12% of its consumer base is Gen Z, while 31% is millennial, and 27% is Gen X.
But capturing the current youth culture isn't the only way to paint a bright future. Analysts say Birkenstock's outlook ultimately comes down to the macroeconomic picture. Although it isn't a designer brand, Birkenstock falls in the luxury category with prices ranging from $50 to $475. While that's on the lower-end compared to a pair of $890 Gucci loafers, it could still be a steep price for consumers who are tightening their discretionary spending.
A heritage brand like Birkenstock sits well among footwear companies because customers are more likely to spend on brands they trust when their spending springs back, Jessica Ramirez of Jane Hali & Associates told Bloomberg.
I visited Birkenstock's Soho store to see how the company is positioning its retail locations.