3 key ways holiday shopping this year will look different from past years, and what shoppers need to know about scoring the best discounts

• Discounts are expected to hit record highs this holiday season, per Adobe Analytics.
• Holiday discounts are expected to start earlier than in the past and be less focused on Black Friday.

With the 2022 holiday sales season just around the corner, discounts are expected to hit record highs for electronics, toys, and computers, according to an online-shopping forecast from Adobe Analytics.

The report analyzed one trillion online retail transactions to project the spending during this year's holiday season, which typically runs from November 1 through December 31.

Online holiday sales in the US are expected to hit $209.7 billion this holiday season, up 2.5% from last year, the report found. Though this is higher than the $204.5 billion shoppers spent online in the 2021 holiday shopping season, this year's rate of growth is the slowest since 2012.

Here are three key ways shopping this holiday season will look different from past years.

1. Shoppers can expect record discounts

Record high discounts of upwards of 32% are expected this year, thanks to inventory oversupply and soft consumer spending behaviour, Adobe wrote in the report.

Discounts on computers are expected to be as high as 32% — up from 10% in 2021 — while discounts on electronics could hit 27% this year, per Adobe.

Thanksgiving Day, which falls on November 24, will be the best day to shop for electronics, while Black Friday, which falls on November 25, will see the best deals for televisions, the report said. November 26 should see big discounts piling up for toys.

The best deals for apparel and sporting goods are expected on Sunday, November 27, the report states. And Cyber Monday — which falls on November 28 and flows into Cyber Week— will see steals on computers and furniture, per the report.

2. Holiday shopping season will start earlier

The holiday season is expected to be impacted by earlier spending, with discounts being offered on big shopping days like the second Amazon prime sales event — Prime Early Access Sale — on October 11 and 12.

"The shape of the holiday season will look different this year, with early discounting in October pulling up spend that would have occurred around Cyber Week," said Patrick Brown, the vice president of growth marketing and insights at Adobe.

From January through August, consumers already spent over $590 billion online this year — 8.9% more than they did in the same time frame last year, Brown added.

Robust online sales during Amazon's first Prime Day this year — held on July 12 and 13 — drove July spending to $73.7 billion spent in July, up 20.9% on the year. These early discount events will "entice some consumers to start their shopping sooner, impacting Cyber Week performance," Adobe said in its report.

3. Black Friday and Thanksgiving shopping stand to lose some of their shine

Shopping days such as Black Friday and Thanksgiving are losing prominence as ecommerce becomes a more commonplace daily activity. They are expected to be dwarfed by Cyber Monday, the season's and year's biggest shopping day, Abode wrote.

Adobe expects Cyber Monday sales to hit a record $11.2 billion in spending, growing 5.1% year on year.

By comparison, Black Friday online sales are projected to grow by just 1% year-on-year at $9 billion. Thanksgiving sales are set to fall by 1% year-on-year to $5.1 billion.