Skechers, Crocs, and Hey Dude could dominate 2023 — and Nike should be worried

• Skechers and Steve Madden are "best positioned" for next year, according to analyst Sam Poser.
• Nike "needs more compelling product" for the spring, Poser wrote.

Skechers and Steve Madden are among the shoe companies "best positioned" to have strong years in 2023, according to analyst Sam Poser, who said industry giant Nike "needs more compelling product" for the spring.

In a note to investors after attending the New York Shoe Show and meeting with several management teams, Poser recently offered an outlook for 2023, including predictions for several top brands.

Although fears of a recession linger, Poser said consumers "have money" and are "willing to spend." He said Cyber Monday sales were stronger than most expected, but weekend sales after Thanksgiving relied heavily on promotions.

Poser, an analyst for Williams Trading, is bullish on Skechers, whose new technology includes a slip-on shoe that Poser said a large retailer described as "stupid good."

"Skechers has always known its customers well, but has often been overaggressive in pushing its goods to market," he wrote. "This year, Skechers' inventory on hand is spoken for, new product and technologies across categories are being well-received by customers, and Skechers management said Skechers had record sales from Black Friday through Cyber Monday."

Poser was less optimistic about Nike, which like Lululemon, is sitting on excess inventory.

"Nike's footwear offerings for spring '23 are underwhelming, according to both better and moderate retailers," Poser wrote.

In January, Nike insiders said the company's loss of experienced designers and managers, both through layoffs and attrition, would ultimately be visible on store shelves.

"You'll start to see it probably around fall or holiday of this year," a former designer told Insider. "You'll definitely see it next year in spring and summer '23."

Poser said it's unlikely Nike will "be positioned to provide a rosy outlook" when it next reports quarterly earnings on December 22.

Deckers, whose brands include Hoka, "remains in great shape," Poser wrote, while Hey Dude, a Crocs brand which remains wildly popular with teens, is a brand to watch in 2023 and beyond.

Poser said Hey Dude could hit $1 billion in fiscal year 2022 sales.

"We came away from our meetings confident that the Crocs brand will realize its 2026, $5 billion revenue target, and that Hey Dude, if managed well, which we expect, has sales opportunities that exceed that of Crocs."