Reminder, The Big Turkish Central Bank Decision Is Coming Up In A Little While
The currency touched a record low of 2.390 lira to a dollar on Monday, but firmed to 2.2591 ahead of the meeting on Tuesday.
The marginal funding rate currently sits at 7.75% and experts are looking for significant rate hikes.
Olgay Buyukkayali, an EEMEA FX and rates strategist at Nomura, believes the central bank will hike rates by 200 basis points. Meanwhile, Timothy Ash, chief emerging-markets economist at Standard Bank, thinks we could see a 300 basis point rate hike.
A rate hike is expected to bring some support for the Turkish lira.
The lira has recently taken a beating on the back of a corruption probe threatening prime minister Tayyip Erdogan and the ruling AKP party.
And anti-government sentiment has picked up since the Gezi Park protests in Istanbul last summer which have raised investor concerns.
Of course Turkey's problems go beyond political uncertainty. Like the other 'Fragile Five' nations, Turkey has a current account deficit problem. And there is the fact that its economic growth has largely been driven by construction which is bound to get more expensive as interest rates are rising.
"I think the central bank is desperate to stop the move lower, and realizes the inadequacy of its current interventions," Enis Taner macro editor at Risk Reversal and former trader at Goldman Sachs, told Business Insider on Monday.
"My guess is that it will be an emergency rate hike, though if it's not, and simply more talk rather than action, then the market could take it very badly. If they do hike rates a couple percent on the upper band, then I think it will calm the currency in the near-term."
Central bank governor Erdem Basci said they would tighten policy in a "lasting way" if needed, according to Reuters. We expect to hear from the central bank at 5 p.m. ET.