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POWER RANKING: Here's who has the best chance of becoming the 2020 Democratic presidential nominee
POWER RANKING: Here's who has the best chance of becoming the 2020 Democratic presidential nominee
Grace Panetta,Walt HickeyMay 1, 2019, 02:31 IST
Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden arrives at a rally with striking Stop & Shop workers in BostonReuters
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The Democratic 2020 presidential field is set to be one of the largest, most competitive, and most unpredictable in modern history with 20 declared candidates so far.
To help make sense of where all these candidates stand in the field, INSIDER has been conducting a recurring SurveyMonkey Audience national poll.
With 20 declared candidates in the race, the Democratic the 2020 presidential field is set to be one of the largest, most competitive, and most unpredictable in modern history.
We choose not to focus on the overall percentage of Democratic voters that would be satisfied in the event a candidate became the nominee. Instead, we're looking for conditional probability: given that a voter likes Candidate A, how often do they like Candidate B, and how is that different than Candidate B's overall performance.
These rankings will be subject to change as we get new information, but at this stage in the cycle, we're mainly interested in how a candidate's name is resonating and how many voters think they can beat Trump.
Here's what our ranking looks like as of April 30, 2019.
Messam, who announced on March 28, isn't registering in Morning Consult's polling yet and will have an uphill battle attracting voters and donors as such a late entry into the field with very limited name recognition.
More importantly, it seems like his campaign is already falling apart at the seams just weeks after its official launch. According to a recent report in the Miami New Times, several campaign staffers have already quit after the campaign couldn't make payroll.
The campaign subsequent recently sent a memo, obtained by the New Times, informing remaining staff that Messam's wife Angela has "consolidated all of the financial and banking assets of the campaign under her exclusive control" and is "refusing to issue paychecks."
Because of his low name recognition as a third-term congressman and his very recent entry into the race, we're placing him at the back of the pack for now until we get more information about his performance compared to the rest of the field.
Swalwell has scant name recognition and is mainly known for his involvement in the Trump-Russia probes as a member of the House Intelligence and Judiciary Committees.
While Swalwell isn't basing his campaign around the Trump-Russia probe, it doesn't appear to be a promising path to the presidency when it comes to issues voters care about.
Even though Swalwell is pitching himself as the gun control candidate, that approach may be met with mixed effect and leaves him open to the risk of betting his candidacy on a non-politically salient issue.
Despite having one of the longest-running campaigns, Williamson, a motivational speaker and New Age spiritual guru, has not been capable of consolidating support or name recognition.
Williamson raised $1.5 million in 2019's first quarter, a decent amount for a candidate without any political experience or high name recognition, but it may not be enough to sustain her candidacy long-term.
But Bennet — who has been in the US Senate for 10 years — currently has the distinction of being both the least-recognized and worst-polling individual with any political experience in the 2020 field.
Despite being elected and re-elected statewide in Montana — which voted for Trump in 2016 — Bullock has not managed to parlay that into a particularly serious candidacy or pre-candidacy.
Still, Bullock is tied for 9th most well-known candidate among Democratic primary voters in Morning Consult polling.
17: Former Maryland Rep. John Delaney.
Delaney enjoys a surprising amount of name recognition but has been unable to translate that into any support in a meaningful way.
He's among those at 1 percent in Morning Consult polls. According to INSIDER's polling, he's known by about 20 percent of Democrats, but has been unable to build a base of support unlike other candidates with similar levels of attention, such as Pete Buttigieg or John Hickenlooper.
Among serious candidates with political experience at any level, Inslee is doing among the poorest when it comes to generating attention in the field.
Despite currently serving as a chief executive and previously serving in Congress for 15 years, he's barely managed to secure 1% in the Morning Consult polls.
Yang, despite the low name recognition that accompanies running for POTUS without any political experience, is actually doing fairly well in INSIDER polling.
He isn't a favorite by any measure, polling at 2% in Morning Consult, but his online army of supporters and meme creators, known as the Yang Gang, helped Yang raise $1.7 million in just 7 weeks almost entirely from small donations.
Yang's candidacy will test whether his unprecedented online popularity, an asset very few candidates have in this election, can translate not just into fundraising dollars but also into votes.
Gabbard has some serious viability problems among Democrats.
Not only do a significant proportion of respondents in INSIDER polling say they are unhappy with her as the nominee compared to her rivals, but Gabbard has not been able to consolidate support in a meaningful way.
Despite being one of the first to enter the race, Gabbard is still polling at 1% in Morning Consult and is considered a less viable opponent to President Donald Trump in the general election than most other candidates.
Tim Ryan is in the tier of candidates polling behind people who have not entered the race.
While Ryan is pitching himself as a pro-labor alternative to Trump for Rust-Belt voters, he nonetheless sows doubt about his ability to beat Trump in the general.
12: Former Georgia House of Representatives minority leader and 2018 gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams.
We began polling Stacey Abrams fairly recently when she became a potential contender for 2020.
Even though she's yet not in the race, she's in a good position to be a kingmaker or queenmaker, based on her wide popularity and historic run in Georgia.
Abrams could help any of these contenders consolidate a Southern base, especially among African-American voters, a coveted constituency.
In the course of just a year, Abrams went from relatively unknown to being a national rising star in the party— making her a formidable possible candidate should she choose to run.
Hickenlooper has modest name recognition at best, and hasn't been able to translate his strong track record serving 15 years in public office in Colorado and stature as one of the only governors in the race into tangible support.
10: Former San Antonio Mayor and Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julian Castro.
While around one-third of Democrats surveyed are aware of Castro, this has not translated into good polling numbers for the former cabinet secretary.
According to Morning Consult, Castro has been in the doldrums of polling at 1% for 2019. And he only raised $1.1 million in 2019's first quarter, less than other lesser-known candidates like Andrew Yang, Marianne Williamson, and John Hickenlooper.
Sen. Kamala Harris, in particular, is consolidating a base of support that could eat Castro's lunch in early primary states like California, Nevada, South Carolina, and Arizona.
Mayor Pete is having a moment. Despite low overall name recognition, he's recently enjoyed a late surge in fundraising.
The Democratic primary voters who do know him are fairly confident in his ability to beat Trump, compared to his more experienced and nationally known rivals, INSIDER polling found.
Pete has enjoyed a considerable polling bump, and the latest in Morning Consult has him ranked third behind Biden and Sanders at 8%, up from 0% in late February and 1% in March.
His stature as one of the top four people in the Morning Consult poll means he's worth paying attention to, but the quickness of his rise and the nature of national electoral politics could give him issues down the line.
Despite the recent Pete-mentum, we've put him in the middle of the pack, for now, to see if he will capitalize long-term on his latest surge.
Klobuchar is known by about a third of the Democratic electorate, and she has one of the better-perceived chances of beating Trump, according to INSIDER polling.
She's still overshadowed by her other Senate colleagues with higher name recognition and is the least well-known person of all senators running for president in INSIDER polling.
Gillibrand, while known by around 40% of likely Democratic primary voters, according to INSIDER polling, has been struggling considerably in the shadow of Harris and Sanders.
Gillibrand's supporters also like many of the other candidates ahead of her, and just 14% of respondents polled by INSIDER believe she could beat Trump in a general election match-up — the worst result of all the female candidates, and third-lowest overall.
Cory Booker is known by half of likely Democratic primary voters, has not been able to translate that into good polling numbers, staying stagnant at 3-4% of the vote for the duration of 2019 in Morning Consult surveys.
His support is precarious in the sense that people who like Booker also like lots of other candidates.
75% of Booker supporters would be happy with Joe Biden, 66% would be satisfied with Kamala Harris, and 50% would be happy with Beto O'Rourke or Elizabeth Warren as the nominees, according to INSIDER polling.
While Booker is broadly favorable within the field, his success will hinge on his ability to convert his favorability that stronger polling numbers and fundraising.
For a three-term congressman, O'Rourke impressively commanded the attention of Democrats by coming within striking distance of beating Sen. Ted Cruz in the 2018 Texas Senate race, shattering fundraising records along the way.
Half of those likely to participate in the field are aware of him, the best result for anyone not a senator or former vice president, and a testament to the energy surrounding his 2018 Senate race.
According to INSIDER polling, 31% of respondents believe O'Rourke could beat Trump — the third-highest of any candidate and only below only Sen. Sanders and former VP Biden.
Kamala Harris is fairly well-known for a first term senator, and is perceived as being most able to defeat Trump in a general election out of all the senators running for president for the first time.
Harris also enjoys the greatest support among other candidates' supporters, INSIDER polling found.
73% of Gillibrand supporters, 72% of Klobuchar supporters, 67% of Buttigieg, 76% of Castro and 67% of Hickenlooper supporters would also be satisfied with Harris as the Democratic nominee, meaning she could consolidate a lot of support when her rivals drop out.
Among the candidates who have not previously run for president, Warren is the most well-known and considered to be a strong contender against Trump in a general election.
Warren overlaps considerably with Sanders and Biden's bases, with 40% of Biden and 40% of Sanders supporters also being satisfied with her as the nominee in INSIDER polling.
This puts her in a good position as a possible strong compromise choice if either or both of Biden and Sanders' campaigns end up falling flat.
Despite her name recognition, however, INSIDER polling respondents don't think Warren can beat Trump as easily as Biden, Sanders, Sen. Kamala Harris or Mayor Pete Buttigieg.
Sanders enjoys widespread name recognition among Democrats from his decades serving in Congress and his 2016 run against Hillary Clinton. He's also established a grass-roots army of small donors that helped him lead the pack in fundraising with an $18.2 million haul in 2019's first quarter.
He is considered the top rival of Biden, and 37% think Sanders would beat Trump in a general election compared to 10% who think he'd lose, according to INSIDER polling.
Furthermore, INSIDER polling found that Sanders would be a satisfactory nominee for half of Biden supporters, which could seriously benefit him in case Biden's candidacy falters.
Biden is also the only candidate who more than half of Democrats believe can win against Trump — according to INSIDER polling.
And 36% of Democrats polled by Morning Consult said that Biden is their first choice out of all 20 declared candidates, a significant boost from before his announcement.
