- With Super Tuesday setting the US up for a Biden-Trump rematch, it looks like China has no good choices.
- But between both men, a rising theory says Trump may emerge to be China's favored candidate.
Super Tuesday has come to a close, and a Biden-Trump rematch is all but set for 2024.
Neither is a promising prospect for China. As one expert in Shanghai told the Associated Press earlier this year, both are "bowls of poison" for Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
One might think former President Donald Trump stands to be the bigger threat, considering his track record of starting a trade war with Beijing and his historically anti-China campaigns.
But a rising perspective among experts on China posits that Beijing has good reason to hope Trump retakes the White House.
The theory is as follows: With Sino-American relations already ruptured, it's unlikely either presidential candidate will improve the global situation for a Beijing that wants to catch up with the US.
Both President Joe Biden and Trump are expected to continue their aggression toward China, with Biden locking away US tech exports and Trump more recently threatening a 60% tariff on Chinese goods.
So, it's likely Beijing isn't hoping for the president who will deal the least damage to China, but the one who creates more risk for Western stability.
Pan Chengxin, who teaches international relations at the University of Macau, told Business Insider there's "little policy gap" between the Trump and Biden administrations when it comes to China.
"China might be less comfortable with the more bombastic style of Trump," Pan said. "But in terms of substance, it may find it more difficult to deal with a second Biden administration because he was a globalist who could more aggressively and effectively rally US allies in the region and beyond to balance against China."
And Trump, with the unpredictability that MAGA supporters relish, will at the very least make US allies skittish through his history of sundering agreements and joint efforts. Or, those agreements and joint efforts could end up being tossed out.
"The issue is whether China would prefer a Biden who is predictable but will strengthen America's alliances, or a Trump who will destroy alliances, which China would love, but would also be unpredictable," said Stanley Rosen, who teaches political science and international relations at the University of Southern California's China Institute.
And nations or industries losing confidence in the US could create opportunities for China to exert its influence.
One way Beijing could profit is through building its version of the SWIFT financial transaction system, wrote Agathe Demarais, a senior policy fellow on geoeconomics at the European Council on Foreign Relations, in the Foreign Policy magazine in February.
If Trump returns to power, countries may try a Chinese alternative as a hedge against global uncertainty, wrote Demarais, recalling how Trump's administration suddenly sanctioned Russian aluminum firm Rusal in 2018 and caused panic buying in the market.
Demarais writes:
The moral of the story was clear: Under Trump, anything can happen—and anyone can fall under sanctions without warning. As a result, many countries would seek to preemptively shield themselves from such measures if Trump were back in the White House. At this stage, the best way to do so is to switch to Beijing's alternative financial mechanisms. That would be another win for China.
Trump has also complained about US aid to Ukraine, leading some to believe he may shelve the Biden administration's sanctions on Russia, a key trade partner for China that's shown signs of becoming too burdensome to sustain.
There's an argument that Beijing is aware of all of this. In China, some of Trump's antics and domestic troubles — particularly those post-January 6 — have earned him the name "Comrade Nation Builder."
This refers to a joke that the former president has been secretly working to build up China by sabotaging the US. When he was indicted in New York in March 2023, Chinese people online posted AI-generated tributes of him retiring in China after his so-called espionage was done.
Whichever way Beijing is betting, it's hard to say which man its preferred pick would be. China staunchly projects to the world that, unlike the US, it has no interest in getting involved in the affairs of other nations, though it's been aggressively growing its influence abroad.
"They will deal with whoever is the US president as necessary to advance PRC interests, it's not about feeling," said Ian Ja Chong, who teaches political science at the National University of Singapore.
With close-to-clean sweeps across the board on Super Tuesday, both Biden and Trump are now all but confirmed to be their respective parties' nominees. However, they're now headed into what's widely assumed to be a close fight for the White House, each man with plenty of baggage — Trump, with his brimming docket of lawsuits, and Biden having to fend off criticisms about his age and physical fitness for the top job.