- China startled the US by conducting a risky intercept of a spy plane over the South China Sea.
- It's a sign that US-China defense relations are more frayed than ever before, experts told Insider.
A Chinese jet cut across the flight path of a US spy plane in a recent risky intercept over the South China Sea, the latest flare-up in a contested region.
In the aftermath, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin warned that this kind of event could one day "spiral out of control." Experts said it was more proof that a rising China is prepared to take risks in opposing US power.
"We should be prepared for increasingly cavalier and dangerous behavior even as we make efforts to establish guardrails and channels of communication," said Dr Jonathan Ward, a strategy consultant and China expert at the Atlas Organization, in an email exchange with Insider.
Startling video of the intercept, taken from within a US RC-135 surveillance plane, shows a Chinese J-16 fighter jet cutting in front of the US craft's nose, forcing it to fly through the resulting turbulence.
US Indo-Pacific Command on Tuesday called it an "unnecessarily aggressive maneuver," saying its plane was doing nothing wrong and would keep operating the flights. China responded, calling the flights "dangerous provocations."
The buzzing incident and its fallout comes amid heightened tensions between the two powers, with Beijing's representatives refusing to meet US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin at a key security conference in Singapore.
'A litany of excuses'
A senior US defense official, who asked to remain anonymous, told Insider that China has repeatedly rejected prior US requests for dialogue over security. "Frankly, it's just the latest in a litany of excuses," the official said.
China's longstanding claims over the South China Sea, through what is known as the nine-dash line, are not recognized by the international community — including other countries that border that waterway.
There is a "long history of [Chinese] recklessness and aggression" in these waters, Ward said.
Despite this, security diplomacy between the US and China in this region used to be more effective, said Dr Zeno Leoni, a China specialist at King's College London's defense studies department.
"They were always able to de-escalate," he told Insider.
In 2001, there was a major international dispute when Chinese and US aircraft collided over the island of Hainan.
"At that time, the relationship was different, there was more pragmatism," Leoni said, describing the two countries, and their respective trading needs, as being in "a marriage of convenience."
Since then, China has made "sustained provocations by air and sea, enormous military buildup, and overt declarations of violent intent," Ward said. A string of artificial islands in the South China Sea serves to extend China's military capability far into these waters, and is strongly opposed by the US.
Meanwhile, anti-American rhetoric has ramped up, and China is "making it clear that they are preparing for confrontation with the United States and other US allies in the region," he said.
Furthering Beijing's messaging in the skies
The decision for a Chinese pilot to undertake such an aggressive intercept may have filtered down from this top-level confrontational stance, Leoni told Insider.
"We don't know the chain of command," he said, but added that the pilot's actions were likely "too low level" a consideration to have come directly from government.
Instead, he assessed that military command in the area are generally aware of Beijing's political objectives and act in the way they think best furthers them. China has issued no statement about the intent behind the incident.
It was probably a similar situation, Leoni said, when a Chinese diplomat in France made the astounding claim — quickly walked back — that post-Soviet states like Ukraine are not real countries.
Stances like bolstering Russia's invasion of Ukraine, as well as its increased militarism and claims to Taiwan and the South China Sea, "all mean that dangerous behavior has much wider implications," Ward said.
Keeping channels open
Austin said Thursday that his Chinese counterpart's refusal to see him in Singapore was unfortunate and he still wanted to meet.
"I think defense departments should be talking to each other on a routine basis or should have open channels for communication," he said.
Such channels have dwindled, notably after then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, a move that infuriated Beijing. China suspended a raft of bilateral agreements, including on defense policy.
Ali Wyne, an analyst focused on US-China relations with the Eurasia Group, told Insider: "The paucity of high-level bilateral military dialogue increases the potential for miscommunication and miscalculation [...] especially with Washington and Beijing both bolstering their military footprint in the region."
Many countries — even those at odds with each other, such as Russia and the UK — have bilateral agreements to quietly discuss and review military incidents in international waters and airspace, thereby allowing de-escalation.
But in February, a crisis line set up between the US and China went unanswered when Chinese surveillance balloons were spotted in US airspace, the AP reported. China's Ministry of Defense said the US had "not created the proper atmosphere" for dialogue.
Since the buzzing incident, US Indo-Pacific Command has warned of the risks for a major escalation if something like this happens again.
Nonetheless, Leoni said there's some way to go before that spirals out of control.
"I don't think we are at the point where the US or China think that there's nothing to lose," he said.