Where Biden and Trump stand in the polls 7 days out from the election

• Political polls have been under increased scrutiny since Donald Trump's surprise victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016.
• The polls in 2020 have largely been consistent, with Joe Biden, the Democratic nominee, maintaining a steady lead over Trump.
• But battleground-state polling is a little trickier, and shifts in certain states dictate campaign strategy when it comes to the Electoral College.
• Heading into this week, polls have tightened slightly in Pennsylvania, one of the most crucial states for both Trump and Biden.

Trying to keep up with the polls in the 2020 election can be a headache.

The 2016 election led to a lot of scrutiny of polling and to skepticism among the public and politicians because of Donald Trump's surprise victory over Hillary Clinton.

Most of that came down to a mix of a lack of polling in certain states and significant errors in others, such as Michigan.

So far in 2020, polls mostly held up through the primary season, and they've shown stasis in support for Trump and Joe Biden, the Democratic nominee, despite an otherwise tumultuous year.

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With more than 66 million Americans already done with voting, shifts in polling now can only move the needle so far.

But several battleground states are up for grabs, and in the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania, some tightening in polls will catch the attention of both campaigns.

Here's a rundown of where the polls stand a week out from the election:

• Biden still has a healthy lead over Trump nationally, ahead by about 9 percentage points. FiveThirtyEight's polling average has Biden up 9.2 points.
• In Pennsylvania — which could very well be the state that decides who hits the 270 electoral votes to win the election — polling has tightened to put Biden about 5 points ahead of Trump. FiveThirtyEight's average has Biden up 5.3 points, while the RealClearPolitics average has him up 3.8 points. (RCP's average includes more Republican-leaning polls that tend to drag Biden down a bit.)
  • Biden does not necessarily need Pennsylvania to win, but it remains one of the most important states for his campaign, and the 4.4-point difference between the polling average and the outcome in 2016 could make it more of a toss-up than his current lead would indicate.
• In Michigan and Wisconsin, Biden is doing much better: He's up 7 points in Wisconsin and 8 points in Michigan. FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver predicted that Biden would still win both even if there were as big a polling error as there was in 2016.
• Florida remains dicey, with Biden up 2 points in a state that has been tight since March.
• North Carolina is also tight. Biden is hanging on to a 2.4-point lead in a state that Trump would need to win in just about any path to 270 electoral votes.

• Read more:
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