Where Biden and Trump stand in the polls 2 days out from the election
- In the Real Clear Politics national polling average, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden maintains a steady 7.2% lead over President Donald Trump (51.1%-43.9%).
- Biden led in the final New York Times/Siena College surveys for Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
- Two new polls from Iowa reveal the difficulties that Democrats may face in reclaiming the state in their column.
We're just two days away from Election Day and final polling numbers are pouring.
In the Real Clear Politics national polling average, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden maintains a steady 7.2% lead over President Donald Trump, with Biden is averaging 51.1% of the vote, compared to Trump's 43.9%.
The final NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows Biden ahead of Trump nationally 52%-42%.
Some key takeaways from the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll:
- Trump has a job approval rating of 45%, with 52% of voters disapproving.
- Voters approve of Trump's economic record 55%-41%, but give him low marks for his handling of the coronavirus, with 40% approving and 57% disapproving.
- Trump leads with white voters overall by a relatively narrow 6 points (51%-45%). In 2016, he won this group by 20 percentage points (57%-37%).
- Biden leads with Black voters (87%-5%), seniors (58%-35%), women (57%-37%), and political independents (51%-36%).
A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Telemundo survey also showed Biden ahead 62%-29% with Latino voters.
The New York Times/Siena College released their final swing state polls on Sunday:
- Biden has a 6-point lead over Trump in Arizona (49%-43%).
- Biden leads Trump in Florida by 3 points (47%-44%).
- Biden is ahead of Trump by 6% in Pennsylvania (49%-43%).
- Biden has a double-digit lead (+11%) over Trump in Wisconsin (52%-41%).
Trump won all four states in 2016, which powered his win over Clinton. Biden is looking to restore the "blue wall" of states that voted for every Democratic presidential nominee from 1992 to 2012, so Wisconsin and Pennsylvania will continue to be a focus for the former vice president.
How do other statewide polls look for the candidates?
- Trump won Florida by 1.2% in 2016, and the 2020 race looks to be just as close. The final ABC News/Washington Post poll for the Sunshine State showed Trump ahead 50%-48%. This pollster has an A+ rating from FiveThirtyEight.
- A new ABC News/Washington Post poll for Pennsylvania showed Biden ahead 51%-44%, in line with his steady lead in the state. However, despite Biden being ahead in Pennsylvania, voters approve of Trump's handling of the economy by 6 points (49%-43%).
- Biden has a 7 point lead over Trump in Michigan (48%-41%) in the final EPIC-MRA of Lansing poll conducted for the Detroit Free Press.
- Emerson College released three Midwestern state polls, showing Biden ahead in Michigan (52%-45%) and Ohio (49%-48%), with Trump ahead in Iowa (47%-46%).
- Last night, the Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. poll showed Trump leading Biden 48%-41%, a huge turnaround from polls showing a Biden surge in the state over the past few weeks. Selzer & Co. has long been considered the "gold standard" of Iowa polls. Despite this result, a competitive race in Iowa should not be written off.
- Emerson College also released two Western polls, with Biden leading Trump narrowly in Nevada (49%-47%) and Arizona (48%-46%). Nevada has always been part of Biden's calculus for winning the White House, but he also wants to secure Arizona, a state that hasn't voted for a Democratic presidential nominee since Bill Clinton in 1996. Trump would like to keep Arizona's 11 electoral votes in his column to offset a possible loss in Wisconsin (10 electoral votes).