GOP Sen. Joni Ernst fends off challenge from Democrat Theresa Greenfield in Iowa Senate race

• The incumbent GOP Sen. Joni Ernst successfully fended off Theresa Greenfield's Democratic challenge for her US Senate seat in Iowa, according to Decision Desk HQ projections.
• Ernst, an Army veteran, was first elected to the US Senate in 2014 as part of a GOP wave and faced a much tougher race for a second term.
• While Iowa has been steadily trending Republican at the federal level for the past few cycles, the COVID-19 pandemic has altered the Senate map and Ernst's seat in play.
• See the live coverage and full results from the US Senate elections.

The incumbent GOP Sen. Joni Ernst fended off Theresa Greenfield's Democratic challenge for her US Senate seat in Iowa, according to Decision Desk HQ projections.

The candidates

Ernst, an Iowa Army National Guard veteran, was seeking her second term after she was first elected to the US Senate in 2014, a GOP wave year.

Senate Democrats' campaign arm, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, threw their weight behind Greenfield, an urban planner, real-estate developer, and first-time political candidate who officially clinched the nomination on June 2.

Her campaign platform emphasized expanding access to affordable healthcare, supporting Iowa's economy, and investing in Iowa's agricultural and rural industries and communities.

Greenfield proved to be a highly competent fundraiser. In 2020's second fundraising quarter, Greenfield brought in $6 million compared with $3.6 million for Ernst.

Ernst captured national attention during her 2014 campaign for highlighting her experience growing up on a pig farm and pledging to "make 'em squeal" in Washington. In Congress, Ernst serves on numerous powerful committees including the Senate Committee on the Judiciary, the Committee on Armed Services, and the Committee on Environment and Public Works.

The stakes

In addition to winning back the White House, regaining control of the US Senate for the first time since 2015 is a top priority for Democrats and would be a major accomplishment toward either delivering on Joe Biden's policy goals or thwarting President Donald Trump's second-term agenda.

Currently, the US Senate is made up of 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and two independents who caucus with Democrats, meaning that Democrats need to win back a net total of four seats to have a 51-seat majority (if Biden wins, his vice president would also serve as president of the Senate and would be a tiebreaker vote).

Iowa has been steadily trending Republican at the presidential level for the past several election cycles, with Trump carrying the state by 8 percentage points in 2016.

But the coronavirus pandemic and ensuing economic crisis have dramatically expanded the Senate map for Democrats and made some races that were not expected to be battlegrounds increasingly competitive, putting Ernst's seat back in play.

And recently, the US Senate went through a high-stakes confirmation battle to replace Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who died at age 87 from pancreatic cancer on September 18, with Justice Amy Coney Barrett.

The night of Ginsburg's death, Ernst's campaign sent out of a fundraising text alerting donors that "Emergency 5X matching has been activated for ALL donations made to protect the White House, keep the Senate majority in Republican hands and ensure the next Supreme Court nominee is selected by President Trump!"

Ernst later apologized for the message and said she did not personally approve it going out.

Then, in an October 15 debate with Greenfield, Ernst made what amounted to a high-profile gaffe in the heavily agriculture-reliant state when she failed to name the current break-even price for a bushel of soybeans off the top of her head.

See Insider's full guide to the race for the US Senate here

The money race

Greenfield has significantly outraised and outspent Ernst, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.

Greenfield has brought in $47.5 million, spent $43.7 million, and has $3.7 million in cash on hand, campaign finance records show, compared with $20.8 million raised, $19.7 million spent, and $2.4 million in cash on hand for Ernst.

In 2020's third fundraising quarter, Greenfield brought in a showstopping $28.8 million haul and dwarfed Ernst, who raised about $7.2 million in the same timeframe, Roll Call noted.

See the live coverage and full results from the US presidential election.

What some of the experts say

The Cook Political Report and Inside Elections rated the race as a tossup, while Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics rated it as "leans Democratic."

FiveThirtyEight's US Senate forecast rated the race as a pure tossup, giving both Greenfield and Ernst a 50% chance of winning.