- GOP Sen.
Lindsey Graham is projected to defeat Jaime Harrison, a former state legislator, in the race for a US Senate seat inSouth Carolina . - Polls in South Carolina closed at 7 p.m. ET.
- Graham, one of the highest-profile Republican senators and a vocal supporter of President Donald Trump, sought a fourth term.
- Harrison put up a formidable fight in deep-red South Carolina, narrowly outpacing Graham in fundraising and tying in polls leading up to the election.
- See the live coverage and full results from the US Senate elections.
GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham defeated Jaime Harrison, a former state legislator, in the race for a US Senate seat in South Carolina.
Decision Desk HQ and Insider projected that the incumbent would hold the state three hours after polls in South Carolina closed at 7 p.m. ET.
The candidates
Graham, one of the highest-profile Republican senators and a vocal supporter of President Donald Trump, sought his fourth term in 2020.
Graham holds a powerful position as chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, giving him a vantage point to help execute much of Trump's agenda. His staunch defenses of Trump and sometimes bombastic style have also made Graham one of the most deeply despised Republican senators among Democrats.
Some Republicans accused Graham of not being sufficiently loyal to Trump. The Fox News host Tucker Carlson, one of the most powerful voices in conservative media, recently blamed Graham for encouraging Trump to agree to several incriminating interviews with the journalist Bob Woodward.
Harrison, a former state senator and former chair of the South Carolina Democratic Party, launched his campaign in February 2019 with a platform centered on expanding access to affordable healthcare, building up the middle class, defeating poverty, and protecting older residents.
His Senate bid gained national attention and attracted lots of funding thanks to Harrison's unique campaign ads, his charismatic campaign style, and the widespread dislike of Graham among Democrats. One of his widely viewed ads illustrated the story of him approaching a Black man in South Carolina who said he had never had a candidate knock on his door and felt ignored and left behind.
Harrison outraised Graham in three fundraising quarters in a row, according to The Post and Courier. He raised a stunning $57 million in the second quarter, compared with $28 million for Graham.
The stakes
In addition to winning back the White House, Democrats hoped to regain control of the Senate for the first time since 2015.
The Senate just conducted a high-stakes confirmation battle — led by Graham — to replace Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who died at age 87 from pancreatic cancer on September 18, with Judge Amy Coney Barrett.
Ginsburg's death threw a stick of dynamite into an already supercharged election shaped by a pandemic that has killed over 230,000 Americans.
Trump's and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's posturing on the issue excited conservatives enthusiastic about Trump getting to appoint a third justice but infuriated liberals who accused McConnell of hypocrisy after he refused to hold confirmation hearings for Merrick Garland, President Barack Obama's Supreme Court nominee, in 2016.
Graham's role as chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, which oversees the process of confirming federal judges, emerged as a flashpoint in the race.
—Jaime Harrison (@harrisonjaime) September 19, 2020
See Insider's full guide to the race for the US Senate here »
Like the Kentucky Senate race between McConnell and Amy McGrath — which McConnell won — this race pitted a nationally known Republican reviled by Democrats against an upstart Democrat whose campaign brought in tens of millions of dollars.
South Carolina has been solidly Republican at the federal level in recent years. In 2016, Trump carried South Carolina by nearly 15 points, while GOP Sen. Tim Scott won reelection by nearly 24 points over his Democratic opponent.
But despite South Carolina's traditional role as a GOP bastion, polls in the weeks leading up to the election suggested an extremely close race between Graham and Harrison.
The money race
Both candidates were prolific fundraisers, making South Carolina the home of one of the most expensive Senate contests this year, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.
Harrison raised nearly $108 million, spent $105.5 million, and had $3.4 million in cash on hand, while Graham raised nearly $73 million, spent nearly $60 million, and had $13.1 million in cash on hand.
After asking for campaign donations multiple times on Fox News and in the US Capitol (which experts said was likely a violation of Senate ethics rules barring members from fundraising in official government buildings), Graham brought in a sizeable $28 million fundraising haul in 2020's third fundraising quarter. But Graham's haul was dwarfed by Harrison's $57 million.
That made Harrison one of three Democratic Senate candidates — along with Mark Kelly in Arizona and Sara Gideon in Maine — to break the quarterly fundraising record for a Senate campaign set at $38.1 million by Texas' Beto O'Rourke in 2018.
What the polling said
Polls at the beginning of 2020 found Graham leading Harrison by double digits, but more recent surveys suggested a more competitive race.
A Quinnipiac University poll conducted from September 23 to 27 found Graham and Harris tied at 48% support among likely South Carolina voters. In that poll, 44% of likely voters said they viewed Graham favorably, while 49% said they viewed him unfavorably.
A CBS/YouGov poll conducted from September 22 to 25 found Graham leading Harrison by just 1 point, 45% to 44%, among likely voters.
But Graham appeared to make up some ground in the polls, possibly thanks to the publicity he received from Barrett's confirmation. A Morning Consult poll conducted from October 2 to 11 found Graham leading Harrison by 6 points, 48% to 42%, among likely voters.
A New York Times/Siena College poll conducted from October 9 to 14 also found Graham ahead by 6 points, 46% to 40%.
The two most recent surveys, conducted by East Carolina University and Morning Consult, both found Graham leading Harrison by 2 points among likely South Carolina voters.
See the live coverage and full results from the US presidential election »
What experts said
The Cook Political Report rated the race as a "toss-up." Inside Elections rated it as "tilts Republican." And Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for