Republican Roger Marshall defeats Democrat Barbara Bollier in Kansas Senate race

• GOP Rep. Roger Marshall defeated Democratic State Senator Barbara Bollier to replace retiring Sen. Pat Roberts in Kansas, Insider reports via Decision Desk HQ.
• Bollier faced an uphill battle against Marshall, the preferred pick of the GOP establishment, whose Senate bid was backed by Roberts and other prominent Republicans.
• See the live coverage and full results from the US Senate elections

GOP Rep. Roger Marshall defeated Democratic State Senator Barbara Bollier to replace retiring Sen. Pat Roberts in Kansas. Polls in Kansas closed at 7 p.m. local time, and Decision Desk HQ and Insider projected that Marshall would win three hours later.

The candidates

Marshall, who represents the state's 1st Congressional District, defeated controversial former Secretary of State Kris Kobach and business owner Bob Hamilton in a competitive primary to determine the GOP nominee in the race to succeed Roberts.

Marshall, a veteran of the US Army Reserves and an OB/GYN by training, is a staunch conservative but still a far more mainstream Republican when compared to Kobach. His primary run was endorsed by outgoing Sen. Pat Roberts, National Right to Life, and the US Chamber of Commerce.

Bollier, also a physician, has served in the Kansas state legislature since 2011 and in the state senate since 2017, where she has advocated for greater healthcare access and education funding. A former Republican, she positioned herself as a common-sense, pragmatic centrist with experience reaching across the aisle.

Bollier faced an uphill battle against Marshall in safely Republican Kansas. The protracted and hotly contested Republican primary fight allowed her to amass a massive cash advantage over Marshall and the other Republican challengers.

The race between Bollier and Marshall heated up in the weeks leading up to the election, as Bollier ratcheted up her criticism of Marshall for his stance on healthcare and accused him of downplaying the threat of the COVID-19 pandemic. In return, Marshall attacked Bollier's support for abortion rights and tried to portray her as "out of touch."

Bollier also secured a powerful endorsement from former Republican Sen. Nancy Kassebaum who served in the seat for 19 years from 1978 to 1997.

The stakes

In addition to winning back the White House, Democrats hoped to regain control of the Senate for the first time since 2015.

The Senate just completed a high-stakes confirmation battle for Justice Amy Coney Barrett who replaced the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg after her September 18 death from pancreatic cancer.

Ginsburg's death threw a stick of dynamite into an already supercharged election shaped by a deadly pandemic that has so far claimed over 230,000 American lives.

Trump and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's posturing on the issue excited conservatives who were enthusiastic about the possibility of the president appointing a third justice in his first term. Liberals, however, were infuriated and accused McConnell of blatant hypocrisy after refusing to consider Merrick Garland, President Barack Obama's replacement for Justice Antonin Scalia, in the 2016 election year.

Kansas has traditionally been a GOP stronghold and Marshall winning the August 4 primary was a relief for Republicans, assuaging their concerns that Kobach's bombastic political brand and statewide loss in the 2018 Kansas gubernatorial election would hurt their chances in the general election.

See Insider's full guide to the race for the US Senate here

The money race

Thanks to the long and expensive Republican primary battle that Marshall spent much of 2020 competing in, Bollier came out ahead in both campaign fundraising and spending.

Bollier raised $20.4 million, spent $12.9 million, and has $7.5 million in cash on hand, according to federal campaign finance filings, compared to $5.9 million raised, $5.1 million spent, and $1.4 million in cash on hand for Marshall.

In 2020's third fundraising quarter, Bollier raised $13.5 million compared to just $2.9 million for Marshall, Roll Call noted.

What the polling said

Polls of the race conducted after the primary were few and far between, but all of them indicated that Marshall's posturing in the race had suffered considerably from the bitter GOP primary.

In a Public Policy Polling survey conducted immediately after the primary in August, Marshall led Bollier by 1 percentage point — 43% to 42%. This was down from Marshall's 10-point lead over Bollier in March.

A subsequent poll conducted by Data for Progress, September 14-19, found Marshall and Bollier tied among likely voters.

See the live coverage and full results from the U.S. presidential election.

What the experts said

The Cook Political Report and Inside Elections rated this race as "leans Republican" while Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it as "likely Republican."