Trump's eviction from the Colorado ballot could come back to haunt Democrats

• The Colorado Supreme Court ruled to bar Trump from the 2024 ballot.
• It cited the 14th Amendment rule barring insurrectionists.

The campaign to bar Donald Trump from office appeared to score an astonishing win on Tuesday.

The Colorado Supreme Court, in a 4-3 ruling, said that Trump should be disqualified from the 2024 ballot for his role in stirring the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot.

The court cited Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, which bans those who have taken part in "insurrection or rebellion" from taking office.

It's the first time in US history a presidential candidate has been barred under the 14th Amendment, and if upheld by the US Supreme Court, it could see the former president removed from 2024 ballots across the US.

There remains, however, unease about the ruling. As noted by the BBC, Republicans were quicker to attack the move than Democrats were to celebrate it.

That may be because, in reality, the prospect of it derailing Trump's bid to return to the White House appears narrow. It could even give his campaign a boost.

Few legal experts believe that that the conservative-majority Supreme Court, three of whom were appointed by Trump, will affirm the decision in Colorado, meaning Trump's path to reelection will remain open.

Colorado, in any case, is a blue state Trump has little chance of winning.

The ruling could even backfire on Democrats, bolstering the former president's election bid.

Trump is facing an array of lawsuits against him, and indictments over his political and business affairs in Georgia, Florida, and Washington.

But he has turned his legal predicament into a potent persecution narrative that's at the core of his bid for the 2024 GOP nomination, which he's the clear favorite to win — as well as his fundraising juggernaut.

In a statement after the Colorado ruling, Trump's campaign sought to portray the decision as yet another example of the covert campaign by Democrats and their allies in the courts to quash his political career.

"Democrat Party leaders are in a state of paranoia over the growing, dominant lead President Trump has amassed in the polls. They have lost faith in the failed Biden presidency and are now doing everything they can to stop the American voters from throwing them out of office next November," it said.

There's little doubt that this narrative will resonate with his core supporters, who've stuck by Trump through a series of scandals that would have ruined most political careers and have long believed that a "deep state" of corrupt government officials is out to destroy their movement.

But it could also resonate on the right more broadly, increasing his GOP primaries lead, with a Monmouth University poll last year finding seven of 10 Republican voters oppose labeling January 6 an insurrection, the core claim of the Colorado justices.

Even staunch conservative Trump critics, such as former ally and 2024 candidate Chris Christie, have criticized the decision, arguing that voters, not courts, should decide whether Trump should win office again.

Trump allies, such as his son Eric, are already crowing that the Colorado ruling will damage Trump's opponents, giving the former president a boost in the polls.

As for a hypothetical match-up with Biden next year, polls indicate an extremely close race between the candidates, though Trump is polling higher than he was when his legal troubles began to intensify in 2022.

Among independent voters, it's unclear how the Colorado ruling will play out, with many moderates abandoning Trump for Joe Biden in 2020 because of the constant scandals surrounding the Republican.

While the Colorado ruling may have been an early win for Democrats, the celebrations are likely to be short-lived.