Trump's campaign team doesn't see a path to victory without North Carolina, and they're not entirely wrong

• President Donald Trump passed through North Carolina on the last day of campaigning to energize his base and win over undecided voters.
• In the 2016 presidential election, Trump defeated Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by 3.7 percentage points.
• Vice President Joe Biden has had a slight lead in the state's polls but the race has tightened in recent days, with Biden and Trump now in a dead heat.
• Forecasting from DDHQ projects Biden has a 56.5% chance of winning North Carolina.

President Donald Trump held a rally in North Carolina on his final day of campaigning, as polls show the race there tightening.

Per a recent report from Axios, the Trump administration is looking at three main pathways for a second term in the White House. Each of the three paths is contingent upon Trump winning the Tar Heel State.

According to election simulations from Decision Desk HQ, there are scenarios where Trump can win on Nov. 3 without North Carolina's support. However, picking up North Carolina is one of the easiest ways for Trump to get four more years.

In DDHQ simulations, only 17% of instances where Trump wins a second term in office are accompanied by a loss in North Carolina. Biden is much less reliant upon the state: Simulations show he wins the presidency 32% of the time even without the state's 15 electoral votes.

North Carolina voted for a Republican candidate in 10 of the last 12 presidential elections. The most recent time the state voted for a Democratic presidential candidate was in 2008 for President Barack Obama. In 2016, it was close, with Trump edging out Hillary Clinton by 3.7 percentage points, according to Ballotpedia.

"Even if Trump loses North Carolina, if he can hold on to some other pivotal states in the electoral college — especially Florida and Pennsylvania — he can still manage a narrow win," Kiel Williams, author at DDHQ, said about the 2020 election.

Williams noted that while Trump could win without the state, losing North Carolina would bode poorly for the Trump campaign on election night. Losing there would mean that Trump likely didn't deliver in other battleground states either.

"If Biden is winning in an environment like North Carolina, he is likely winning on terrain like Pennsylvania as well," Williams added.

Forecasting from DDHQ projects Biden has a 56.5% chance of winning North Carolina. Recent polling from October 29 to October 31 by Emerson College shows Biden and Trump in a dead heat among likely voters in the state.