Trump's attempt to bounce Congress into bigger stimulus checks could easily go wrong

• President Donald Trump made last-minute objections to the COVID-19 stimulus bill, asking Congress to up its $600 stimulus checks to $2,000.
• The bold move got instant support from Democrats and set up a damaging clash between Trump and other Republicans, who oppose greater stimulus.
• Trump does not hold all the cards here. By pushing for bigger checks, he could end up tanking a stimulus package altogether by blowing up a fragile consensus.
• He could also start a fight with Congress that he will lose — lawmakers could override his veto power and pass the measure anyway.
• Meanwhile the clock is ticking. A government shutdown is due to hit just after Christmas, which could be blamed on Trump if he doesn't sign something.
• He is also due to leave office in less than a month, potentially leaving President-elect Joe Biden to pass a relief bill that Trump could not.

President Donald Trump launched a surprise attack on the COVID-19 relief bill agreed by Congress, calling for stimulus checks for Americans to be increased from $600 to $2,000.

The move caught Washington off-guard, but could easily go wrong for him despite its audacity.

Democrats, who have long supported bigger checks, cheered on Trump's demand and said they would try to legislate to make it happen

It leaves Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell with a dilemma: drop his opposition and pass the bill, or take the blame for keeping Americans from a larger check.

And the clock is ticking - if Trump insists on fighting the current stimulus bill, which was wrapped up with hundreds of millions of dollars in other spending, a looming government shutdown will be on his shoulders.

Here is how his gambit could go wrong:

Even if Trump vetoes the bill, Congress could pass it anyway

It isn't clear if Trump will veto the bill.

Even if he did, Congress can overturn a veto with a two-third majority in both chambers. Based on what happened when the bill passed Monday, there are easily enough votes for that.

He could paint that outcome as a political win: He wanted to give Americans more money but was blocked by Congress - though doing this would be to the detriment of his own party.

And, as Politico noted in its Wednesday Playbook email, this would leave Trump looking powerless to influence his own party.

And, as Business Insider's Joshua Zitser reported, the extra time needed to hold those votes would likely delay the checks, which were due to be sent out next week.

One potential losing outcome for Trump is that he fails to get the bill changed, his veto is overridden, and $600 checks go out but with a delay that can be pinned on him.

A Trump veto could end in a government shutdown

Trump's new objection could change the calculus in Congress and mean that he can effectively block the bill.

If more than one-third of either the House or Senate decides they don't want to force through a bill against Trump's will, then Trump's veto would stick.

But that would trigger a government shutdown, as well as halting benefits to millions of people, and ensuring that nobody gets a check.

He needs to decide by December 28 if he wants to avoid a government shutdown on December 29.

Asking for too much could get him nothing

It's also worth noting that Trump's criticism of the spending bill was not only down to stimulus checks.

He told lawmakers to "get rid of the wasteful and unnecessary items" in the wider spending package. Insisting on those changes too would take even longer.

Could he hand Biden a victory?

Trump only has a few more weeks in office. If his delay means that no relief gets passed, then Trump could end his term with a shut-down government, no stimulus - and an easy win for his successor.

If President-elect Joe Biden were quick to approve a spending bill after January 20 then it would hand him an opportunity to present his term as a new era of competence after Trump's chaos.