Trump was just found liable for sexual abuse. GOP pundits say it won't hurt him with Republican voters.

• Trump was found liable for sexual abuse in a civil trial after a years-long legal battle with E. Jean Carroll.
• Carroll's trial was the first time Trump has confronted sexual misconduct allegations at trial.

Former President Donald Trump's comeback presidential campaign suffered a major setback after he was found liable of sexual abuse in a civil rape trial on Tuesday, and GOP strategists warn that its true political cost will come by next fall in what could be a tight re-match with President Joe Biden.

A New York jury deliberated for under three hours before finding in favor of columnist E. Jean Carroll, who accused Trump of raping her in the mid-1990s and subsequently defaming her by saying she made up the accusation for publicity. The jury did not find that Trump raped Carroll, an accusation he has repeatedly denied.

Carroll's trial marked the first time that any of sexual misconduct or sexual assault allegations against the now-former president reached the trial stage.

Trump, who did not attend the trial in person, was ordered to pay $5 million in damages. The verdict adds to the legal baggage that may weigh on voters' minds. The former president also faces a criminal probe of his handling of classified information and is being prosecuted on allegations he falsified business records in New York. He railed against the verdict.

"I HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA WHO THIS WOMAN IS," Trump wrote in an all-caps message on his social media platform, Truth. "THIS VERDICT IS A DISGRACE - A CONTINUATION OF THE GREATEST WITCH HUNT OF ALL TIME!"

Rick Tyler, a Republican strategist and prominent Trump critic, told Insider that the publicity around the alleged assault and the jury's finding is unlikely to do more than dent his support among Republican voters, saying "the Trump cult will explain it all away."

Swing voters, however, will "swing as far away from Trump as possible," Tyler said, "making him unelectable in the general."

The full fallout may only come if the GOP frontrunner survives the primaries, when he must try and woo women, independents, and social conservatives to his side during the general election.

Jason C. Roe, a former House aide and now GOP strategist, said before Tuesday's news that losing the case probably wouldn't rattle Trump diehards but could cost him down the line.

"In the primary, it would be ignored as part of the anti-Trump cacophony they're desensitized to," Roe said of the "fake news" conditioning Trump has repeatedly impressed upon his base.

Under a 'political thunder cloud'

Polling shows that as legal scandals continue to swirl around Trump, his strength grows. An ABC News/Washington Post poll released over the weekend, showed Trump leading Biden in a potential head-to-head race. The former president has also expanded his lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in early GOP presidential primary polling, though DeSantis has yet to announce his intentions.

As Axios' Mike Allen pointed out, the same ABC News poll found that 18% of voters who think Trump should face criminal charges in the other cases still prefer him over Biden. Trump has repeatedly illustrated a way to defy the stench of scandal in business and politics that would have sank anyone else.

When it comes to the GOP, voters and party leaders often rally around Trump in times of crisis as was illustrated by the party's response to the FBI search of Mar-a-Lago and the reaction to his 34-count indictment in New York on allegations of falsifying business records.

"In the general, it would repel swing voters," Roe predicted, though he declined to weigh the potential damage because the election remains 18 months away.

"It's very tough to get out from under this political thunder cloud for Trump," Reed said, estimating that "many will drop their Trump support overnight."

When it comes to hitting Trump on the verdict, Roe said 2024 candidate and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson was probably best suited to capitalize on it.

"His candidacy is based on the idea of decency," Roe said. Whereas he suspects that others like Trump administration alumni Nikki Haley "still want Trump voters to come their way," so they'll be less inclined to alienate MAGA supporters.