There will be 34 US Senate elections this year, but control of the US Senate will hinge on just nine contests.
Both Democrats and Republicans have their eyes on the key swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Wisconsin. All are considered competitive by the Cook Political Report, which tracks congressional and presidential races, as well as operatives and pollsters from both parties.
Democrats are playing defense in four of those states, while Republicans are seeking to keep five more. At stake for both parties is control of the US Senate, and whoever holds power come January 2023 will determine what, if anything, President Joe Biden can accomplish in the final two years of his first term.
Democrats barely hold the Senate. The chamber is divided 50-50 between the two parties, with Vice President Kamala Harris serving as a tie-breaker (the chamber's two independents, Vermont's Bernie Sanders and Maine's Angus King, caucus with Democrats).
Republicans are eager to capitalize on voters' concerns about inflation and frustration with the lingering pandemic in order to oust at least one incumbent Democrat.
Political winds may be on their side. Recent polling shows voters are frustrated with Democrats, mostly due to economic concerns. And an ABC News poll from February found that Republican congressional candidates have a seven-point edge over Democratic ones among registered voters. The gap is even starker among voters who are registered and also certain to vote, with Republican candidates leading Democratic ones 54-41%.
While home-state factors will weigh in on each of those senate races, national forces, such as Trump's continued sway over Republican voters, economic anxiety, and frustration over the coronavirus pandemic will also likely play a role in deciding the balance of power in Washington.