The ultimate guide to Super Tuesday
- Both President Biden and former President Trump are focused on the November general election.
- But they must first win over voters in a slew of primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday.
Super Tuesday, on March 5, is perhaps the most important day on the presidential nominating calendar, with the outcomes of races in 16 states and one territory poised to give virtually insurmountable delegate leads to both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
Headed into Super Tuesday, Trump has won nearly every GOP contest against his remaining major intraparty challenger, former UN ambassador Nikki Haley. The former president emerged victorious in key contests including the Iowa caucuses, New Hampshire primary, South Carolina primary, and Michigan primary, while Haley won her first primary in Washington, DC, on Sunday.
On Super Tuesday, Trump is looking to continue his dominant performance against Haley as he inches closer to earning the 1,215 requisite delegates needed to secure the GOP nomination. However, Haley continues to criticize Trump over everything from his electability to his judgment regarding foreign affairs, arguing that the GOP must turn the page from the former president.
Meanwhile, Biden easily won the early Democratic contests, but he encountered some pushback in last week's Michigan primary, when over 100,000 Democratic primary voters chose "uncommitted" to protest his refusal to call for a permanent cease-fire in Gaza. (He won the state's primary with 81% of the vote.)
Democratic challengers Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson have so far attracted minimal support among the party's voters.
Here's a look at the states (and the territory) where voters will head to the polls on Super Tuesday:
Alabama
Democratic delegates at stake: 52
GOP delegates at stake: 50
Should Trump win the GOP nomination, Alabama is set to be one of his strongest states in the general election. The former president easily carried the state in both 2016 and 2020, and with an evangelical base that remains strongly behind him, he's poised for a major victory over Haley.
Biden — who has sought to appeal to Black voters ahead of November — won over 70% of the Black vote en route to a huge victory over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders in the state's 2020 Democratic primary. And this bloc made up a near-majority in the Democratic primary that year.
While the state will almost certainly be in Trump's column in the fall, Biden's margins among Black voters could be a barometer of the current state of his campaign, as he'll need to energize this critical bloc across the country to secure reelection.
Alaska
GOP delegates at stake: 29
Alaska will hold a Republican caucus on Super Tuesday, which Trump is expected to win.
Despite Trump's popularity among the state's conservative base, he was unable to help his endorsed candidate defeat GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski in 2022. Murkowski, who voted to convict Trump for "incitement of insurrection" for his actions on Jan. 6, 2021, recently threw her support behind Haley's presidential campaign.
Democrats will hold their presidential primary on April 6.
Arkansas
Democratic delegates at stake: 31
GOP delegates at stake: 40
Arkansas is another conservative-leaning Southern state that is almost certain to back Trump by wide margins in both the GOP primary and the general election.
Biden is expected to win the Democratic primary in the Natural State.
California
Democratic delegates at stake: 424
GOP delegates at stake: 169
California, the most populous state in the US, accordingly has the highest number of delegates in both the Democratic and GOP primaries.
Last year, the California Republican Party tweaked the rules for the primary, which will now afford all of the state's GOP delegates to the candidate who wins the contest with over 50% of the vote, in a move that's viewed as a boost to Trump. If no candidate wins a majority of the vote, then the delegates will be granted proportionally.
Biden is expected to win California's primary rather handily, but both Phillips and Williamson could chip away at his margins in this large state.
Colorado
Democratic delegates at stake: 72
GOP delegates at stake: 37
Both Biden and Trump are favored to win their respective primaries in Colorado.
The Colorado Supreme Court in a 4-3 decision last year ruled that Trump should be disqualified from appearing on the state's primary ballot, but the decision was stayed as the Trump campaign later sought an appeal.
On March 4, a day before Super Tuesday, the US Supreme Court unanimously ruled that states cannot disqualify Trump from the ballot.
Once a Republican stronghold, Colorado has voted for every Democratic presidential nominee since 2008. With its sizable share of college-educated suburban voters and unaffiliated voters, Haley could put up a notable showing in the state's GOP primary.
Iowa
Democratic delegates at stake: 40
Republicans in the Hawkeye State held their first-in-the-nation caucus in January.
But after the Democratic National Committee moved South Carolina to the front of the line in the party's nominating process, Iowa Democrats instead turned to a presidential preference vote via mail. (Voting began on January 12 and preference cards that are postmarked no later than March 5 will be accepted.)
In recent election cycles, Iowa, once a decidedly purple state, has shifted to the right, giving Democrats little hope that Biden can win the state this fall.
Trump carried Iowa in both the 2016 and 2020 general elections.
Maine
Democratic delegates at stake: 24
GOP delegates at stake: 20
In Maine, Both Biden and Trump are favored in their respective party primaries.
However, Haley is poised to peel off center-right Republicans who remain uncomfortable with a second Trump presidency, especially after Maine Sen. Susan Collins endorsed Haley's campaign last week.
Massachusetts
Democratic delegates at stake: 92
GOP delegates at stake: 40
Biden's victory in the 2020 Massachusetts Democratic primary effectively ended Sen. Elizabeth Warren's presidential campaign that year.
He's set to win the state's Democratic primary again, this time as the occupant of the Oval Office.
Haley could potentially put up one of her best Super Tuesday showings in Massachusetts, as many of its GOP voters continue to embrace the sort of old-school Republicanism in the mold of former moderate Govs. Bill Weld and Charlie Baker. Still, Trump remains popular with base conservatives in the state.
In the general election, Massachusetts will lean heavily toward Biden.
Minnesota
Democratic delegates at stake: 75
GOP delegates at stake: 39
Biden is expected to win Minnesota despite the presence of Phillips — a congressman representing part of the Minneapolis suburbs — in the presidential race.
Haley could attract the support of many of the state's suburban voters in the GOP primary.
North Carolina
Democratic delegates at stake: 116
GOP delegates at stake: 74
North Carolina is poised to be one of the most competitive states in the general election.
Trump won the swing state in both 2016 and 2020, but the Biden campaign wants very much to flip it this November.
The primary results could reveal any major weaknesses and strengths for both Biden and Trump.
Oklahoma
Democratic delegates at stake: 36
GOP delegates at stake: 43
Both Trump and Biden are poised to win Oklahoma in their respective primaries.
Tennessee
Democratic delegates at stake: 63
GOP delegates at stake: 58
Trump's conservative base is firmly behind him in Tennessee, while Biden should perform well with base Democratic constituencies in the state.
Texas
Democratic delegates at stake: 244
GOP delegates at stake: 161
Trump has cultivated his support in Texas for years, and even with the state's swath of suburban voters, he's set to do well there against Haley — especially with immigration being a paramount concern for GOP voters. The former president has long campaigned on border security and he's heavily amplified the issue ahead of a likely rematch with Biden.
Utah
Democratic delegates at stake: 30
GOP delegates at stake: 40
In Utah, one of the most conservative states in the country, Democrats are holding a presidential primary while Republicans opted for a caucus.
Vermont
Democratic delegates at stake: 16
GOP delegates at stake: 17
On Super Tuesday, Haley could win some support from centrist Republicans leery of Trump. In January, the former South Carolina governor was endorsed by the popular GOP Gov. Phil Scott.
But Vermont is a strongly Democratic state on the presidential level.
Virginia
Democratic delegates at stake: 99
GOP delegates at stake: 48
Both Biden and Trump are poised to win Virginia, which leans Democratic on the presidential level. However, Haley could make things interesting on the GOP side in Northern Virginia and in politically-competitive suburbs and exurbs in metropolitan Richmond and Hampton Roads.
American Samoa
Democratic delegates at stake: 6
Democrats will hold caucuses in the US territory of American Samoa.
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