The public may not see Trump's tax records before the 2020 election, despite the Supreme Court's landmark rulings against him
- The Supreme Court ruled in two cases on Thursday that New York prosecutors can see President Donald Trump's tax returns and that Congress has the authority to subpoena the president's financial records.
- The rulings are a significant defeat for a president who has repeatedly blocked investigators from gaining access to his closely held records. But that doesn't mean the public will necessarily get access to them any time soon.
- Legal experts say that the process of filing criminal charges against Trump in New York and settling the issue of what standards Congress must meet to subpoena the president could both take months.
- However, there is a chance Trump's records could be made public before November if a grand jury indicts the president and the Manhattan district attorney's office moves forward with a criminal prosecution.
The Supreme Court ruled on Thursday that New York prosecutors can see President Donald Trump's financial records — an outcome the president has aggressively tried to prevent.
The Court ruled that the Manhattan district attorney, Cyrus Vance Jr., can legally obtain the eight years of business and personal tax documents his office subpoenaed related to their investigation into hush-money payments Trump and his company made leading up to the 2016 election.
In a second case concerning Trump's financial records, Trump v. Mazars USA, the Supreme Court ruled that Congress has the authority to subpoena the president, but that it must reach a higher standard of review than it would in cases not involving the president. The court remanded the case to the lower courts to decide exactly what Congress should be required to prove when subpoenaing the president, a process that could take months.
Thursday's rulings are a landmark defeat for a president who has repeatedly blocked investigators from gaining access to his financial documents. But the outcome doesn't necessarily mean the public will get to see them before the November election, or any time soon.
Experts say it's unclear when the public will see Trump's records
Constitutional law experts agree that the court's two rulings — both of which were decided 7-2 — are tremendously significant in deciding the scope of executive power.
But Trump might not have to face the consequences of the rulings until after the November presidential election.
In Trump v. Vance, "the Court's ruling reaffirmed the long-standing principle that the grand jury is ordinarily entitled to every person's evidence, including the President," Jessica Roth, a professor at Cardozo Law School and former federal prosecutor from the Southern District of New York, told Business Insider. "That said, the decision will not result in the financial documents in question being turned over immediately to the grand jury and District Attorney in New York."
The Manhattan DA's investigation is looking into whether the Trump Organization violated state laws when Trump reimbursed his former lawyer and aide, Michael Cohen, for payments he made to adult film actress Stormy Daniels to keep her quiet about her alleged affair with Trump prior to the presidential election.
Cohen also paid off Karen McDougal, a former model who says she had an affair with Trump. The president has denied having the affairs and making the payments.
Vance celebrated the decision as a "tremendous victory for our nation's system of justice and its founding principle that no one – not even a president – is above the law."
But Roth noted that "it may be weeks or months before the documents are actually turned over. Even once they are, they will be subject to grand jury secrecy rules, which prosecutors and investigators are required by law to honor."
When it comes to the Supreme Court's ruling on Congress' power to subpoena the president, experts say it will take even longer for the public to see the relevant records. And they may never see them at all.
"Although it remains to be seen whether the House will prevail ultimately, the Court's standards will be challenging for the committees to comply with," Jack Sharman, a criminal defense attorney and former special counsel during the Whitewater investigation, told Business Insider. "As a practical matter, there may not be a production before the election."
Some constitutional law experts argued that Trump "won" both cases in the short term.
"If a delay is what Trump wanted, then I guess he won, even though the Court also provided a unanimous rejection of Trump's frivolous argument about presidential absolute immunity from the criminal law," Jens David Ohlin, a vice dean at Cornell Law School and an expert on criminal and constitutional law, told Business Insider.
"The presidency lost but the President won," Steve Vladeck, a law professor at the University of Texas, tweeted.
He added, "The rulings are a win for the rule of law and the idea that Presidents aren't above it. And the subpoenas will likely be enforced *eventually.* But if what Trump's hiding is inculpatory, then a delay past November is a win for *him.*"
Trump's lawyers argued in the two cases that the president is immune from all criminal investigations and prosecution while he's in office and that Congress didn't have a legislative reason to subpoena his records and therefore couldn't see them.
"We are pleased that in the decisions issued today, the Supreme Court has temporarily blocked both Congress & NY prosecutors from obtaining the President's tax records," Trump's personal attorney, Jay Sekulow, said in a statement following Thursday's rulings. "We will now proceed to raise additional Constitutional and legal issues in the lower courts."
However, if the New York grand jury indicts the president and Vance files charges against him before the November election, the contents of his financial records could become public through that process.
Neal Katyal, a former acting solicitor general of the US and a Georgetown Law professor, said on Thursday that he expects Vance "to move incredibly fast" and that his team of prosecutors may well file charges against Trump before November.
"These cases can move very quickly," Katyal told MSNBC. "It's totally possible for all of this to come out before the 2020 election, in terms of New York's prosecutors getting this information and acting on it."