The polls have shifted in Kamala Harris' favor
- Kamala Harris is surging ahead of Trump in national and swing state polls.
- Harris's campaign has energized voters, reversing Biden's previous deficits in key states.
A slew of new voter polls are revealing one key trend: the race for the White House has shifted in Kamala Harris' favor.
Since Harris replaced President Joe Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket less than four weeks ago, Harris's campaign has injected a surge of youthful energy and excitement into weary voters and a once-struggling Democratic party.
And that momentum has helped Harris rise ahead of Trump in national polls and even inch ahead of Trump in crucial swing states.
In almost all battleground states, Harris has gained a narrow lead over Trump, a new poll from the Cook Political Report Swing State Project found.
The poll, released Wednesday, shows Harris with an overall 2-point lead over Trump in a horserace including third party candidates across the swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
And in a head-to-head matchup across those states, Harris had an overall 1-point lead over her Republican opponent.
While that lead is still slim, it shows how much ground Harris has gained since Biden was in her place. In May, the same survey found that Trump had an overall swing state lead of 5 points over Biden in a horserace matchup, and in a head-to-head matchup, an overall lead of 3 points.
In each battleground state, according to the Cook survey, Harris has between a 2-point and 5-point lead over Trump in a horserace matchup, with Georgia being the only state where the two are tied. In May, Trump was leading across the board, except in Wisconsin where he was tied with Biden.
Polling across the board has shown movement toward Harris.
The latest New York Times/Siena College polls also show Harris leading the former president by a four-point margin in the critical swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. When Biden was in her place, an earlier version of the poll found he only had a small lead in Wisconsin and trailed behind Trump in both Michigan and Pennsylvania.
And even in Florida — which was once considered a swing state but has become more solidly red in recent years — Harris has narrowed Trump's lead. In a Florida Atlantic University poll released Wednesday, Trump has a 3-point edge over Harris among likely Florida voters, which is half the lead he had over Biden when the poll was conducted in June.
And it's not just swing state polls where Harris is gaining ground.
In an average of 14 national polls, Harris has edged ahead of Trump by 2.7 points, according to an analysis by FiveThirtyEight.
It's a big jump from the days after Biden exited the race, when Harris only had a 0.8-point average national lead over Trump, FiveThirtyEight found.
In one national poll, conducted by NPR/PBS News/Marist poll and released last week, Harris crept up to a 3-point advantage over Trump in both a horserace and head-to-head matchup. That's four points up for Harris since the same poll was conducted shortly after she replaced Biden in the race, when Trump had a one-point advantage over her.
And it's Black voters, white women with college degrees, and independent women voters who are propelling Harris ahead, the NPR/PBS News/Marist poll found. Her favor with these groups has increased 20 to 30 points since she first took over the Democratic ticket, NPR reported.
Across the board, Harris is doing better than Biden was before he dropped out of the race. In an average of national state-level polling, Harris is doing 7.2 points better when matched up against Trump compared to Biden, according to an analysis by statistician Nate Silver.
All the excitement around Harris's fresh campaign has infuriated Trump and led Republicans to argue that it's just a honeymoon phase.
Meanwhile, Harris will hope that her surge in polling isn't temporary — and that she can ride the wave of momentum through a shortened campaign season and into the White House.