'The party of permanent lockdowns'

Hello, everyone! Welcome to the next edition of Insider Today. Please sign up here. If you're enjoying this newsletter, please forward it on. (What's "Insider Today?" Please see bottom for more detail.)

SUMMARY: Democrats risk becoming the lockdown party. Early-opening states are doing OK. Wisconsin Supreme Court was right to limit governor's emergency powers. The secret list of judges Republicans are nudging to retire early. Photos reveal your chocolate-chip cookie mistakes. Time to show off your van renovation. A flat bear and laughing hippo.

"Insider Today" with Blodget and Plotz

Democrats had better make clear that they also want to reopen as soon as possible, or they'll become "the party of permanent lockdowns"

Sentiment is shifting.

After two months of lockdowns and devastating economic consequences, quarantine fatigue and frustration have set in, and more Americans want to reopen the country.

So far, the "reopeners" are still a minority — mostly Republicans, who, as Insider's Kayla Epstein reports, are falling in line behind President Trump. But as it becomes clear that the US is past the peak of this first wave, and new cases and deaths decline — and the states that began reopening "too early" do not see a devastating second surge (see below) —more Americans will feel the same way.

To be clear:

The federal government and Trump administration blew the initial US response to the coronavirus, and they still don't have a plan beyond "reopening." They downplayed the threat of the virus and failed to contain and control the outbreak when it was small. They pitted states against each other instead of leading a coordinated national response. And they failed to build an adequate national testing, tracing, quarantine, and PPE strategy during the two months of lockdown.

The choice between "the economy" and "public health," moreover, is still a false one. As the slow recovery of the economy in Georgia and other early-opening states is showing, and as at least one study has confirmed, it's not the lockdowns that have obliterated our economy and jobs — it's our justifiable fear of catching and spreading the coronavirus.

But!

Trump is a brilliant marketer, and he has already seized on the message that will eclipse his mistakes and rescue his administration.

Trump's new message is that he will save us from job-losses, economic misery, and lockdowns. And, in classic Trump fashion, he is now successfully blaming those horrors on the Democrats, painting them as "the party of permanent lockdowns."

So the Democrats need to make clear that they, too, want to reopen the country as soon as possible. They also need to stress that, unlike Trump and the GOP, they have a plan to manage the risk and identify and contain any new outbreaks as they happen.

In short, the Democrats need to develop and communicate their own reopening plan. And, in the meantime, they need to advocate for a more nuanced message than "just stay home."

We know a lot more about this virus and how it spreads than we did three months ago. We know, for example, that ubiquitous mask-wearing helps and that outside activities are low risk. The Democrats need to take advantage of science and expertise and share their plan for leading us out of this hell. — HB

The "worst fears" are not yet coming to pass. Early-opening states are still doing okay.

When states like Georgia announced plans to begin to reopen three weeks ago, the condemnation was swift.

By reopening too early, the fear was, Georgia and other states were inviting a second surge of infections. Even President Trump said he "strongly disagreed" with Georgia Governor Brian Kemp's decision, which violated Trump's own reopening guidelines.

But now we're in mid-May. And the much-feared "second surge" has not yet happened.

Georgia's new daily cases have plateaued. Same for Florida's. And even though most US states have begun to reopen, the country's overall case and death counts are still gradually declining, even outside of New York.

Yes, it's early. Most of these states — including Georgia — have not fully reopened. And most still have restrictions on businesses that have reopened.

And, yes, the analysis is complicated.

And, yes, if reducing transmission were the only consideration, we would likely do better staying closed. A deep-dive by Philip Bump and the Washington Post found that, on average, states that have remained closed have seen a sharper decline in cases than those that have begun to reopen.

But "reducing transmission" is not the only consideration. Our livelihoods, education, and mental health are also considerations. We cannot stay in hiding forever, even if quickly eliminating the virus in this country were a real possibility, which unfortunately it no longer appears to be.

By not acting aggressively and competently back in January and February, we missed our chance to "suppress" the outbreak when it was small, the way New Zealand, South Korea, Taiwan, and other countries have. The only strategy available to us now is "mitigation"—managing the risks and spread while we await the development of vaccines and effective treatments.

And as we seek ways to reduce restrictions without triggering a major new spike in cases, the experience of our early-opening states is encouraging. So far, anyway, we have not seen the feared spike in infections that would indicate that easing restrictions is a terrible idea. — HB

The Wisconsin Supreme Court was right to limit the governor's emergency powers

With a reopen-minded Republican legislature and a cautious Democratic governor, Wisconsin is the front line of the growing partisan conflict over the pandemic.

So it's not surprising that yesterday's Wisconsin Supreme Court decision to strike down Gov. Tony Evers extended stay-at-home order has been condemned by Democrats as partisan judicial activism.

Maybe it was: All the justices who ruled against Evers are conservative.

But seen another way, the Wisconsin Supreme Court decision is a valuable blow against the creeping executive overreach we see across the nation.

The court decision is complicated, but it partially hinges on the Supreme Court ruling that the emergency powers of the governor can't be extended indefinitely. In a long pandemic, the governor shouldn't be able to unilaterally extend emergency measures indefinitely, but should at some point need to consult with the legislature about the right policy.

This seems sensible. Legislators represent Wisconsin's citizens, and they are closer to on-the-ground local concerns than the governor is. In an urgent, short-term emergency — a fire, a terrorist attack — the governor should have broad power to act quickly and freely. But COVID-19 is a slow-motion steamroller of an emergency. At this point, it makes sense to expect the governor to consult widely and involve all parts of the government.

History shows us that dictatorial governments exploit emergencies — and extend emergencies — to give themselves special powers. We're seeing that in countries like Hungary during COVID-19. We in the US have a bad recent history of presidents stretching their warmaking powers at the expense of Congress.

The original congressional authorization to use force after 9/11 is still invoked by presidents for conflicts in countries around the world almost 20 years later.

Wisconsin isn't Hungary, and Gov. Evers isn't launching airstrikes on a foreign country. Still, it's good to see a court stand up for limiting emergency powers, and rebalancing the branches of government by giving the legislature more say.

Now let's hope the same people praising the Wisconsin decision work to increase the power of the US Congress and diminish our increasingly imperial presidency. — DP

There's a secret list of judges that Republicans want to retire so Trump can name younger successors

Fearing defeat in 2020, Republicans are pushing elderly federal judges to retire so that President Trump gets to fill their seats. Insider's Darren Samuelsohn has obtained the list of more than 80 judges appointed by Republican presidents who are targeted for replacement.

Business:

Another horrendous week for jobs: 3 million more Americans filed initial unemployment claims this week, making 36 million in all. Goldman Sachs just increased its estimate of the peak unemployment rate from 15% to 25%. That would match the peak of the Great Depression.

Twitter ups the remote-work ante, tells employees they can work from home forever. Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt argued the other day that the pandemic will end up being a boon for commercial real-estate because companies will have to take more space to retrofit offices for social distancing. Twitter and others see a different future.

A 17-year old built one of the world's most popular coronavirus statistics sites. He could make $8 million in revenue from ads, but he's 17, he says, so he doesn't need the money. Also, he doesn't want to be a "profiteer."

Life:

Iceland is reopening for tourists on June 15. They'll give you a free coronavirus test when you land. Test negative and you can head for the glaciers and midnight sun. Test positive, and it's off to 14-day quarantine.

Housing is expensive and jobs are scarce, so young adults are living in vans—and giving TikTok house tours. Gen Z-ers are creative and resourceful. And "van living" has come a long way since Boomers just threw old mattresses in the back of Econolines.

The 2020 Comedy Wildlife Photography Awards. Insider has the best photos submitted so far, including a sleepy owl, a dancing bear, and a laughing hippo.

The Big 3*

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell wants to expand the FBI's surveillance powers, allowing them to monitor your web-browsing history without a warrant. Privacy and civil-liberties hawks are understandably freaked out.

Photos of the six baking mistakes that can screw up your chocolate chip cookies. Admit it, you don't really like the fat, cakey kind. You want the thin, buttery ones. Insider's Rachel Askinasi will help you diagnose your screw-ups and fix your desserts.

New face masks will light up when they detect the coronavirus. Harvard and MIT researchers say their sensors will "produce a fluorescent signal when a person with the coronavirus breathes, coughs, or sneezes. The system will potentially catch carriers that other rapid screening systems like temperature checks miss.

*The most popular stories on Insider this morning.

Your Letters

On the White House coronavirus epidemic…

While I agree with much of what you say, there are several key aspects of the White House problem which are not being discussed.

First and most obviously, these infections started outside the White House. Given the separate nature of the publicized infections (President's valet, Vice President's spokesperson, Ivanka's personal assistant working remotely, people who do work together). it is likely these people did not infect each other — it is either the Secret Service (11 cases) or more likely there are multiple external sources which caused these 3 infections (as well as the start within the Secret Service). So how would that happen? Lack of appropriate social distancing, hand washing and so on. These are people who follow the President, and as such are affected by his constant downplaying of the virus, refusal to wear a mask, and so on.

Secondly and related to the first point, this does not mean testing is faulty at the White House. The testing is working. So as to your last paragraph, it is just unexplainable and reckless of the White House to expect people to return to work without testing AND TRACING in place in a meaningful way nationally. The delays in getting this done (and the resulting deaths and economic slowing) rest at Trump's door.

— Jeff Furnish

On "Insider Today"...

Thank you for your newsletter and your integrity and honesty. Yours is a fresh and sincere view of this crazy world. I love your faith in the USA and the American Constitution and your belief that American business and the American Way of Life, will prevail. Your values are both Republican and Democrat, but overall pro-American. A true pleasure.

In today's' America, most mainstream news is much too left wing and apologetically democratic socialist. Fox News is all too apologetically pro-President Trump and Pro-Republican. Pathetic! Journalism should be fair and honest and let the reader(viewer) decide, as in the days of Walter Cronkite and Huntley/Brinkley. Promote a fair and honest discussion, offer both viewpoints and offend everyone equally! Most Americans are solidly in the middle, Independent, moderate, and they want what's best for their country and themselves.

— Alan Cohn

Thank you, Alan! And thanks to all of you for reading and sharing.

Insider Today's goal is to provide you with insight and analysis about the big stories of the day — "Insider in your inbox."

Please feel free to reply to this email and tell us what you like or don't like, and we'll evolve and improve as we go. And if you're enjoying the newsletter, please forward to your friends.

Please also let us know your thoughts on the topics we discuss. Please include your name and city/state/country. If we think other readers will enjoy your note, we'll publish it! henry@insider.com and dplotz@businessinsider.com

To view this newsletter on our site, click here.

Read the original article on Business Insider