The market is already indicating the early winners and losers from Trump's win
- This is an excerpt from the Insider Today newsletter.
The future of the White House has been decided. So what does that mean for the rest of us?
A pillar of President-elect Donald Trump's campaign was the economy and the work he would do to "fix it." He even adopted the slogan in the final days of election season.
We have a few more months until he gets to work, but there are already indications of who will and won't benefit financially from those plans. Let's break it down:
Winners
Stock investors: The three major US indexes — S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial — surged to record highs as Trump's return is considered a boon for the market. The president-elect's plan to cut corporate taxes is probably the biggest catalyst for the rally. But the potential for deregulation, helped by a GOP-majority Senate and potentially House, is more wind for stocks' sails.
Tesla shareholders: The EV giant took off with news of Trump's win, finishing the day up almost 15%. CEO Elon Musk's big bet on the former president has paid off, with one analyst describing Trump's victory as a "home run" for Tesla. Another said the regulatory hurdles Tesla faces with its autonomous driving technology could be expedited with Trump in office.
Bitcoin believers: Trump was largely viewed as the more favorable option for digital currencies, and that's already playing out with bitcoin reaching record highs and eclipsing the $75,000 mark on Wednesday. The self-appointed "crypto president" has also helped the sector's stocks like Coinbase, which finished the day up more than 31%.
Losers
People hoping inflation stays low: Trump has hammered the current administration for the high inflation that plagued the country throughout 2022 and 2023. But most economists believe the president-elect's plan for a minimum 10% blanket tariff on most imported goods will flare inflation back up. The tax meant to generate money for the US government is seen ultimately getting passed down to the US consumer, leading to higher prices.
Potential homebuyers: Inflation concerns could result in a tighter monetary policy, which means mortgage rates will stay high. Bond yields are already soaring, indicating the market expects the cost of borrowing to keep rising. The 10-year US Treasury yield, which mortgage rates closely track, spiked to 4.477%, its highest level since early July.
Investors in Europe: European growth stands to take a hit from Trump's proposed tariffs, according to Goldman Sachs. The bank's analysts downgraded their growth forecasts across the region to 0.8% from 1.1% for next year, citing policy uncertainty arising from tariffs as a major cause. At least one European is happy, though. The French national Polymarket "whale" banked $48 million in profits from their Trump election bet.
The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Ella Hopkins, associate editor, in London. Grace Lett, editor, in Chicago. Amanda Yen, fellow, in New York. Milan Sehmbi, fellow, in London.