The 7 states most likely to decide the election for Biden or Trump

Ohio, the Buckeye State, holds 18 electoral votes and has a 3.8% chance of deciding the election, according to FiveThirtyEight.

In the first presidential debate on Sept. 29, both Trump and Biden mentioned Ohio multiple times in an attempt to win over voters in the state. Trump falsely claimed that the state "had its best year it's ever had" in 2019 while Biden claimed that he saved the state's auto manufacturing under the Obama administration.

In 2017, Trump personally promised Lordstown residents to remain calm and not sell their homes after the General Motors plant was shuttered. He was unable to restore the plant. Following a report that Ohio-based Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company disallowed wearing political apparel, including MAGA attire, the president called for a boycott of the company on Twitter.

Ohio's presidential voting history has swung both ways in recent years as the state voted for President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 before pivoting to President Trump in 2016, where he defeated Hillary Clinton by 8 percentage points of the final vote.

A late September survey from Fox News shows Biden with a 5% polling advantage over Trump among likely voters. According to Decision Desk HQ, the presidential election in Ohio is the currently the tightest it's gotten as Trump has just a 51.2% chance of defeating Biden.

North Carolina currently has a 3.1% chance of deciding the next president of the United States, according to FiveThirtyEight.

As the COVID-19 pandemic has ravaged the United States, the race in North Carolina has gotten closer and closer. What was once thought of in May as an easy Trump victory is proving to be the opposite as the race is now considered a toss-up by experts, including Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.

The race in North Carolina appears to be high on the president's list of priorities: according to the Associated Press he has visited the state 5 times in as many weeks, his children have visited four times, and Vice President Mike Pence has been there twice in the same time span.

In addition to a tightly contested presidential election, North Carolina is home to the nation's closest attorney general race. North Carolina Attorney General Josh Stein was elected in 2016 after winning by less than 1% of the final vote. Stein is expected to be in just as tight of a race this year as he faces Republican Jim O'Neill. On top of an already close presidential race, the attorney general election is primed to bring in excited voters for both sides.

"These are no longer down ballot races, they're prime attractions," said Adam Piper, the executive director of the Republican Attorneys General Association.

While North Carolina last voted for President Trump over Clinton by 4% of the final vote, the state voted in 2008 for President Barack Obama.

According to Decision Desk HQ, Biden has a 55% chance of winning the state's 15 electoral votes.

Next on the list of electoral tipping points is Arizona with a 5.3% chance of deciding the election, according to FiveThirtyEight.

The presidential election is not the only tight race in Arizona as Sen. Martha McSally and retired astronaut Mark Kelly duke it out for a Senate seat in a special race. The seat was originally held by the late Republican Sen. John McCain. Following her husband's death and President Trump's disparagement of the military, Cindy McCain endorsed Biden for the presidential election.

While Trump has called mail-in voting a scam, Arizona allows every voter to vote by mail. According to the Arizona Citizens Clean Elections Commission, about 80% of voters utilize mail-in voting. In 2016, the state voted for Trump over Clinton in a 50-45 percentage point split, according to NPR.

A mid-September poll of likely voters from Data for Progress shows Trump with a 1 point advantage over Biden.

FiveThirtyEight forecasting estimates that Michigan has a 9% chance of being the tipping point of the 2020 election.

Following the extension of stay-at-home orders from Gov. Gretchen Whitmer amid the COVID-19 pandemic, armed protesters stormed the Michigan Capitol building leading some lawmakers to wear bulletproof vests out of caution. Prior to the armed protests, Trump said the state should be liberated. Since then, he has lobbied even more against Whitmer on Twitter.

"The Governor of Michigan should give a little, and put out the fire," Trump tweeted. "These are very good people, but they are angry. They want their lives back again, safely! See them, talk to them, make a deal."

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to affect Americans, the Trump administration is hoping that opening up the country and appeasing COVID-19 deniers and protesters is enough to sway voters, even if over 200,000 Americans have died from the virus. In 2016, Michigan voters narrowly voted for Trump over Clinton by 0.2 percentage points, according to Ballotpedia.

According to Decision Desk HQ, Biden has a 77.7% chance of winning over Michigan's voters in November. A recent survey from Marist College in late September shows Biden leading Trump by 8 percentage points among likely voters.

After weeks of protests in the state, Wisconsin is primed to be a tipping point in the 2020 election. According to FiveThirtyEight, there is a 13.4% chance that Wisconsin will host the deciding votes from the electoral college.

The August police shooting of Jacob Blake in Kenosha led to weeks of protests and riots, which ultimately culminated in 17-year-old Kyle Rittenhouse being charged in connection to the death of two protesters.

Trump has used the protests in Wisconsin and around the country to push his "law and order" campaign focus — a tactic that mirrors former President Richard Nixon's 1968 presidential campaign.

Both presidential candidates visited Wisconsin in recent weeks to speak with voters and get a glimpse of the protest's aftermath and to sway any on-the-fence voters.

Recent polling from Marist College from Sept. 20 through Sept. 24 has Biden ahead of Trump by 10 points among likely voters. Election analysts Decision Desk HQ predicts Biden with a 75.4% chance of winning Wisconsin.

In 2016, Wisconsin voters just barely voted for Trump over Clinton in a 48-47 percent split of the final vote, according to NPR.

According to forecasting from FiveThirtyEight, there is a 14.3% chance that Florida will push Biden or Trump over the 270 electoral votes. A lifelong New Yorker, Trump moved his official residency in 2019 to Florida, where he owns the Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm Beach.

While Miami-Dade County and much of southern Florida are considered Democratic strongholds, much of the state's electorate leans Republican — leading to division in nearly every presidential election. Similar to Pennsylvania, the state of Florida narrowly voted for Trump over Clinton in a 49-48 percentage point split, according to NPR.

While Biden is currently winning over the nation's large swath of older voters, a demographic which in Florida saw an 82% turnout rate in the 2016 elections, Trump currently maintains an advantage of Florida's sizable Hispanic population.

According to an NBC News/Marist Florida survey between Aug. 31 through Sept. 6, Trump is leading Biden 50% to 46% among Hispanic voters. Additionally, a survey from Bendixen & Amandi International and the Miami Herald has Trump winning 68% of Cuban-American voters.

According to Decision Desk HQ, Biden has a 62.5% chance of winning in Florida. Further simulations from DDHQ show that winning Florida is nearly a must-win for Trump, as simulations show that he only wins the presidency 10% of the time without the Sunshine State.

According to FiveThirtyEight forecasting, there is a 28.3% chance that Pennsylvania will be the tipping point in the 2020 presidential election. The commonwealth is the birthplace of Democratic nominee and former Vice President Joe Biden, who grew up in Scranton and is hoping that his Pennsylvanian ties will improve his chances in November.

Pennsylvania currently holds 20 electoral college votes and in 2016, the commonwealth's voters narrowly sided with Trump over Clinton by just 0.7 percentage points, according to Ballotpedia.

Forecasting from Decision Desk HQ shows Biden with a 75% chance of winning the Keystone State. The most recent polling from Siena College and the New York Times from September 25 to 27 has Biden leading Trump by 9% among likely voters. According to DDHQ simulations, Trump wins a second term in office just 30% of the time without a win in Pennsylvania.