- Saudi Arabia is seeking to repair relations with the US after a recent diplomatic spat.
- Democrats accused Saudi Arabia of seeking to damage the party in the midterms by cutting oil production.
After diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and the US seemed to sink to another low earlier this year, the Arab nation now appears keen to smooth ties with the Biden administration.
And it's the better-than-anticipated showing by the Democratic Party in the midterm elections that has strengthened President Joe Biden's hand, analysts say.
Many had projected sweeping gains for the Republican Party in the recent midterms, aided by economic challenges tied to high inflation and rising fuel prices.
In the lead up to the elections, members of the Democratic Party accused Saudi Arabia of backing away from an agreement to boost oil production, and instead cut it, as part of a ploy to spike inflation and damage the Democrats' chances in the midterms.
But instead, Biden's party emerged with their control of the Senate intact, and with a smaller-than-expected loss of seats in the House.
As such, the Saudis have in recent weeks made a series of diplomatic moves seemingly aimed at improving frayed relations with the White House.
In October, the country voted in favor of a UN resolution not to recognize Russia's annexation of several provinces in east Ukraine, while it also boosted its aid to Ukraine by $400 million.
The US is Ukraine's chief international backer in its fight against Russia's invasion, and the moves appeared to be designed to show that Saudi Arabia is not taking Russia's side in the conflict.
The Wall Street Journal also reported last week that Saudi Arabia could be set to partly reverse the decison to cut oil production that had so annoyed Biden, and instead boost it — although the report was denied by Saudi Arabia's energy minister.
"It is unlikely that Saudi Arabia will want to mend ties with the [Biden] administration, as both parties are still at odds with one another, but we can expect to see a dialling down of tensions over the next two years," Neil Quilliam, a researcher with the Chatham House think tank in London, told Insider.
The Biden administration has also signalled its desire for a reset in relations.
In court documents earlier this month, the US Justice Department said that Saudi Arabia's de-facto ruler, Mohammed bin Salman, should be immune from prosecution related to the 2018 murder of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
It's a move that has been interpreted by some legal analysts as a concession to the Saudis, and is in stark contrast with Biden's previous pledge to make him a "pariah" over the killing.
The CIA believes Crown Prince Mohammed to be behind the murder, something he has denied.
When it comes to the oil cut, Brian Katulis, a policy expert at the Middle East Institute in Washington DC, told Insider that the backlash had taken the Saudis by surprise, and that they had underestimated how the decision would be perceived in the US' hyper-polarized domestic political environment, especially in the lead up to the midterms.
He said that the Saudis had made "many missteps" and had been "perceived as trying to engage in America's own partisan squabbles."
Saudi Arabia is now walking a tightrope, said Chatham House's Quilliam.
On the one hand, they see the US as the best guarantor of their security, given extensive arms sales to the kingdom and military support. Yet they also regard the US as a waning power, and are keen to foster closer ties with Russia and China, the US' key geopolitical rivals.
Even so, key common strategic interests, including containing Iran, mean both nations have more to gain in keeping the alliance alive.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia is also keenly aware, said Quilliam, that the Middle East is no longer a key strategic priority for Washington.
"Neither a Republican nor a Democratic party president will reverse US policy towards the Gulf, and Saudis are cognisant of the fact that their region is no longer a first order priority for the White House – no matter who occupies it," he said.
Meanwhile, the Saudi regime's brutality against dissidents is the wildcard that could at any minute blow up attempts to return relations to normal, said Katulis.
"It's a siege mentality and it does lead to things like the awful overreach in the shape of jailing dissident voices or going out and trying to kidnap or murder someone," he said.