- The Kremlin will likely wait until after the next election to announce any mobilizations, the UK MOD said.
- It will be an unpopular move, so will likely only happen after the March 2024 election, it said.
Russia doesn't want to announce an "unpopular" big mobilization of troops until after its next presidential election, according to UK intelligence.
The UK Ministry of Defence noted that Russia's next presidential election is due to take place on March 17, 2024, saying in an intelligence update on Tuesday that "in the build-up to the election, the Kremlin will almost certainly seek to minimise unpopular policy moves."
"It is therefore highly unlikely that any further mobilisation wave will be implemented before the March 2024 presidential election," it said.
Russia has only announced one major mobilization since it invaded Ukraine in February 2022, calling up 300,000 reservists in September 2022.
That was met by an exodus of young Russians from the country, and some protests within Russia.
Experts have previously said that President Vladimir Putin wants to avoid another big call-up, fearing a backlash among the Russian population.
Russia has adopted more subtle methods to boost its troop numbers, including increasing the age that men can be called up to fight, recruiting migrant workers already in the country, and bringing in others from neighboring nations.
Putin has not yet announced that he will seek a new term in office, but the UK MOD said he "will almost certainly run again."
Putin has already served four terms as Russia's president, his first two between 2000 and 2008, and two more since 2012.
In 2021, Putin signed a law that would allow him to run for two more terms and stay in power until 2036 – a move critics said essentially made him "president for life."
Putin's past opponents have frequently been jailed or have died in mysterious circumstances, and elections in Russia aren't considered free, with allegations of fraud, manipulation, and interference.
The UK MOD said that, despite this, the election process remains "a core tool of political legitimisation" for the Kremlin.
The MOD added that Putin will likely use his upcoming election campaign to demonstrate just cause for his recent actions, which have included the invasion of Ukraine and a crackdown on domestic dissents.
"It is almost certain that Putin's election campaign will focus on the theme of Russia as a separate civilisation in need of defence from external enemies – a narrative frequently used to justify the state's actions and Putin's consolidation of power," it said.