Republicans want to push Manchin out of a reelection bid because they think he's the last Democrat who can win in deep red West Virginia: 'You can't say that it's impossible for him to win'

• Republicans are looking to nudge Joe Manchin out of a Senate reelection bid in 2024.
• A McConnell-aligned group is spending $2 million in an ad campaign against Manchin, per Politico.

From the governorship to agriculture commissioner, Republicans occupy state executive offices. In 2020, Sen. Shelley Moore Capito won reelection in a landslide, capturing every county in the state. And the state Senate and state House of Delegates, which had robust Democratic majorities just over a decade ago, now have GOP supermajorities.

In recent years, West Virginia — once a Democratic stronghold — has turned sharply toward the Republican Party.

But Sen. Joe Manchin, a longtime institution in the Mountain State, is the last statewide Democrat still standing, and to many Republicans, he is the only figure from his party who can win in next year's Senate race.

Manchin — a former West Virginia secretary of state and former governor who has served in the Senate since 2010 — has indicated that he'll likely wait until the end of the year to announce whether he'll run for reelection in 2024.

However, Republicans have already revved up their efforts to convince Manchin to bow out of the race in their early efforts to flip the Senate next year, recruiting wealthy two-term Gov. Jim Justice to take on the incumbent.

One Nation — a GOP group with ties to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky — has jumpstarted a $2 million ad campaign to attack Manchin's legislative record, according to Politico.

Manchin is a fearsome candidate despite it all.

Still, many Republicans are not discounting Manchin's chances if he decides to run for a full third term in office, citing his record of winning tough races in a state that has moved far from its Democratic roots.

Mark Blankenship, a Republican pollster who conducted work for Justice's reelection campaign in 2020, told Politico that Manchin's success at the ballot box can't be overlooked, despite the heavy GOP lean of the state.

"There is a reason that Joe Manchin is basically the last standing Democrat in a state that has had a red tsunami since 2014," he told the outlet. "You can't say that it's impossible for him to win because he's won so much."

And Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, who has served alongside Manchin for over a decade, told Politico that the Democratic senator's chances can't be dismissed, even in a election year where the Republican presidential nominee will almost surely win the state by a hefty margin.

"You can't take Joe for granted," Graham said. "He's a formidable politician."

Easing Manchin out of the race would essentially deliver the seat to the GOP

Republicans looking to oust Manchin from office hope that if he declines to run, they'll be one step closer to retaking the Senate majority that they lost after the dual Georgia Senate runoff elections in January 2021. They're also hoping that a Manchin-free election would allow them to direct money to other key races across the country next year.

But if Manchin does run, Republicans should expect a tenacious campaigner who has shown that he won't be outworked. And Manchin may also benefit from a GOP primary that could potentially become messy; Justice joined a field that includes Rep. Alex Mooney, who is already attacking the governor as a "RINO," or Republican in Name Only.

Patrick Hickey, a former political science professor at West Virginia University, compared Manchin's retail politics to that of former President Bill Clinton.

"He has that Clinton-esque ability to make everybody feel like he's your friend and he's listening to you and he's concerned about you," Hickey told Politico.