Republicans in Congress are holding up Ukraine aid and Russia is poised to take advantage

• Republican lawmakers are putting the brakes on giving more aid to Ukraine.
• They're demanding concessions from Biden and Democrats first.

Republicans in Congress are threatening what Ukraine needs most to hold out against Russia and may be giving Vladimir Putin exactly what he wants.

After a largely unsuccessful Ukrainian counteroffensive that followed an equally lackluster Russian winter offensive, the war has settled into something of violent stalemate along the front lines in the country's east, with intense fighting continues in places like Avdiivka and positions across the Dnipro River.

Facing tough battles, Kyiv's forces have begged Western supporters like the US to send more military aid.

The White House has been trying. On Monday, Biden's administration urged Congress to approve more aid for Ukraine, and Director of the White House's Office of Management and Budget Shalanda Young said time is running out.

"I want to be clear: without congressional action, by the end of the year we will run out of resources to procure more weapons and equipment for Ukraine and to provide equipment from US military stocks," Young wrote in a letter to Congress.

A high priority is more ammunition. One report this week indicated that Ukraine is on track to make dozens of its own howitzers, but might not have the shells needed to fire them. Even in this 21st-century conflict, artillery is still a defining element of front-line combat, and both Ukraine and Russia are burning through crucial ammunition.

"We are out of money – and nearly out of time," she added.

On Wednesday, using the limited resources remaining, the Biden administration announced a $175 million aid package to Ukraine including air-defense capabilities, artillery, and missiles, but the State Department noted in a press statement that "unless Congress acts to pass the President's national security supplemental funding request, this will be one of the last security assistance packages we can provide to Ukraine."

But if Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was hoping for a breakthrough of the congressional impasse this week, those hopes have likely since been dashed.

Republicans in the US House and Senate are digging their heels in and demanding that Biden agree to concessions — like changing US immigration and border policy — before they agree to send any more money overseas to help Ukraine fend off Russia's unprovoked invasion.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is rallying his GOP colleagues to torpedo a $111 billion Senate aid package, which would provide military aid to Israel as well.

"I'm advocating and I hope all of our members vote no on the motion to proceed to the shell [bill] to make the point, hopefully for the final time, that we insist on meaningful changes to the border," McConnell said to reporters on Tuesday, according to The Hill.

Zelenskyy himself was due to talk to senators and plead his case but canceled a virtual meeting at the last minute, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said.

Russia is ready to take advantage

The gridlock in Congress is exactly what Russia wants. Moscow has been hoping to see Western aid for Ukraine crumble since the start of the invasion.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov cheered the hold-up on Thursday, telling reporters that Russia hopes lawmakers will keep jamming up the works and not "scorch the money of American citizens in the furnace of the Ukrainian war."

"Hopefully, there are still enough people with sober minds among American congressmen," Peskov said, according to the Moscow Times.

The big Ukrainian counteroffensive to liberate captured towns in eastern and southern Ukraine retook only a limited amount of territory, roughly 200 square miles, according to some reports, with only small victories here or there.

Continuing offensive efforts like securing scraps of land along the Dnipro River are coming at great cost and may prove to be of limited value as Ukraine's attention is drawn to defensive battles against renewed Russian assaults.

NATO recently warned that things could turn against Ukraine if it runs out of military equipment to hold off Russia's costly attacks.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg issued that warning in an interview with German broadcaster ARD this week, according to Politico Europe.

"We have to support Ukraine in both good and bad times," he said. "We should also be prepared for bad news."

He didn't elaborate on what that could mean for Ukraine, but "bad news" for a country locked in an existential war has the potential to be catastrophic and could hand Putin the initiative to defeat Ukraine or force it into peace talks that'd be favorable for Russia.