Republicans are mobilizing expat votes for Trump in Israel, hoping to tip the scale in battleground states

• Republicans in Israel are working hard ahead of the election.
• Israel has the fourth-largest US expat community, with up to 200,000 eligible voters.

Judith Segaloff has been busy in the run-up to the election.

"From early in the morning, until late at night, people are calling me, people are WhatsApping me, people are asking how to get their ballots," she told Business Insider during a phone call. "It's non-stop."

Born in the US, Segaloff now lives in the West Bank in a settler community that the International Court of Justice says is illegal.

Working with the Republican Overseas in Israel group, she is emerging as a key organizer to mobilize the GOP vote in what looks like a very close race.

Expats' votes are counted in the last state they lived in. As a former Michigander, Segaloff's vote is powerful.

She has been reaching out to other US voters living in Israel, originally from battleground states, in the hope of helping to secure a win for former President Donald Trump.

"I think that we could influence the swing states and move them a little bit," she said.

According to the Federal Voting Assistance Program, Israel has the US's fourth-largest expat community and about 147,000 eligible voters. iVote Israel, a voting resource for Americans in Israel, estimates the number at around 200,000.

The pool of voters isn't huge, but in such a close election, it could prove significant.

Matanya Harow, iVote Israel's national director, said most voters contacting them are from New York, New Jersey, and California, but a significant number come from battleground states, mainly Pennsylvania and Michigan.

"I believe that they can have quite a sizable impact," he said.

With days to go, absentee ballot registration deadlines for many states have already passed, so iVote Israel is primarily helping voters return their existing ballots — a process that varies by state.

Historically, the challenging task has stunted turnout in Israel. According to the FVAP, only about 5% of American voters in Israel cast their ballot in 2020.

Nonetheless, both parties are trying.

According to CBS News, the Democratic National Committee allocated $300,000 for Democrats Abroad to reach overseas voters—a first in a presidential election cycle.

Although the official Democrats Abroad in Israel group disbanded over a disagreement shortly after last year's October 7, 2023, terrorist attacks, a new organization formed — American Democrats in Israel.

Heather Stone, the group's executive vice chair, said they've received "thousands" of calls from swing-state voters living in Israel. "It's down to the wire," she said.

She said those voters see Vice President Kamala Harris as supportive of Israel and its ability to defend itself. They are, she said, also motivated by other issues like abortion, healthcare, the economy, and the climate crisis.

"We don't check our values just because we moved across the ocean," Stone said.

The GOP pitch — protecting Israel's security

The Republican camp appears to be zeroing in on Israel's defense and security.

Sen. JD Vance, Trump's running mate, said in a video earlier this month to American voters in Israel that if Harris becomes president, "it's going to lead to broader regional war or maybe even worse."

Trump has previously made the unfounded claim that Israel would cease to exist within years if he doesn't win.

The message resonated with some American voters in Israel, particularly given Israel's simultaneous fights with Hamas, Hezbollah, and other regional foes

"We're fighting for our survival right now, our sons and daughters — of Americans — are being killed in Gaza and Lebanon," Raphael Gantshar, a New Yorker who moved to Israel 17 years ago, told BI.

He said American voters in Israel will be asking, '"Which presidency is the one that will save the lives of my children?"

Gantshar believes Trump is the answer and will vote for him for a second time. He said he feels the former president understands better than Harris how to stabilize the region, which he believes aligns with the best interests of the US.

For Tzvi Silver, who moved from New Jersey 13 years ago, Israel's security is a concern, but he doesn't necessarily buy the apocalyptic warnings.

"I don't think that Vice President Kamala Harris being elected will necessarily be good for Israel," he said.

"I'm also not concerned that I'll wake up on the day after the election, November 6, and all of a sudden the Jewish state will, God forbid, be gone or something like that."

Silver said that he had been convinced to vote for Trump based on his track record, highlighting the Abraham Accords — agreements from Trump's presidency that promoted Arab-Israeli normalization — and the state of the US economy.

Although Silver is firm in his decision, that is not the case for everyone around him. He said his in-laws plan to vote for Harris, while his wife may vote for Trump for the first time.

In Trump-friendly Israel, American expats are divided

In general, Israel is Trump-friendly territory. There's even a town square named after him.

According to a national Langer Research/PORI poll of 1,012 Israelis last month, Trump is comfortably ahead of with 56% of preferences to Harris' 24%.

In contrast, Jewish voters in the US overwhelmingly tend to support the Democrats.

While no specific polls exist for US voters in Israel, Uriel Abulof, an associate professor at Tel Aviv University's School of Political Science, believes opinions are divided, primarily along religious lines.

He said that among American voters in Israel, Orthodox Jews are more likely to support Trump, while secular Jews tend to favor Harris.

For those in the middle, their choice is likely to hinge on who they believe will best protect Israel, Abulof said.

This may in turn be influenced by their support for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

He said, "In this age where everything is so personalized, if Bibi says, and effectively he does, that Trump is better for Israel, then they would vote for Trump."

For the Republicans Overseas in Israel, they're banking on a sizable number of those people being from swing states.

Or, as Segaloff wrote in a WhatsApp message, "Here's hoping."