- Kari Lake remains the heavy favorite to win the Arizona GOP Senate primary this summer.
- But some Republicans are skeptical of Lake's candidacy in one of the nation's premier swing states.
When Kari Lake jumped into the Arizona GOP Senate primary last October, many conservatives were thrilled with the decision, confident she'd energize base voters in the general election.
But Lake, a former television journalist who narrowly lost the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial race to Democrat Katie Hobbs, remains a polarizing figure among the electorate. Lake excites former President Donald Trump's most fervent supporters, but Arizona, in recent years, has morphed into a purple state where independents are critical and statewide Republicans are not assured of easy victories.
A recent survey released by Emerson College Polling/The Hill showed that Lake was only winning 80% of Republicans and losing roughly 15% of GOP voters to her likely Democratic opponent, Rep. Ruben Gallego. It's still early in the campaign, but the numbers are a sign that she has so far not consolidated GOP support around her candidacy.
And there's a similar sentiment among GOP leaders. While many are backing her campaign, others are less than thrilled.
Sen. John Barrasso of Wyoming, the chair of the Senate Republican Conference, told Politico that while he anticipates most GOP candidates will be outspent this year, Arizona is too important of a state for the party on the national Senate map. (Barrasso speaks with Lake often, according to Politico.)
"To me, Arizona is a top-tier state. Because it's an open Senate seat," he told the outlet.
Lake is beginning to obtain some much-needed investment from Washington Republicans.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) is set to unveil a joint television ad buy in conjunction with Lake's campaign, according to Politico.
But former Arizona Rep. Matt Salmon, who ran against Lake in the GOP gubernatorial primary two years ago before withdrawing from the race, wasn't optimistic about his onetime opponent's viability.
"When you don't really have a core belief in anything, and you're willing to take whatever position you think is politically expedient at the moment, you end up getting caught between a rock and a hard place before too long," he recently said of Lake during a Politico interview.
"Ultimately, the Republican Senate committee is probably going to realize before too long that there's far better opportunities for victories in other parts of the country," he added.
Sen. Todd Young of Indiana, who chaired the NRSC from 2019 to 2021, told the publication that Arizona is "certainly not" on his current list of top pickup opportunities for the GOP this year.
Republicans are virtually assured of picking up the West Virginia seat being vacated by Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin. But in addition to Arizona, they're angling to flip seats in Montana, Ohio, Maryland, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
"It's really important that Republicans control at least some lever of power in Congress," Young told Politico.
But he was seemingly unsure if he'd become involved in Lake's campaign down the line.
"I don't know that I'm participating in that one. It's possible," he added.